Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature near 22°C for Istanbul on September 17, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered light rain that limit daytime heating. Current conditions on September 15 show highs around 23°C under similar overcast skies, with ensembles clustering daytime maxima between 21–23°C rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. This pattern supports the market’s emphasis on 22°C as the leading outcome at 47.5% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 21°C, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the suppressed thermal profile. Updated runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月17日伊斯坦布爾的最高溫度？
9月17日伊斯坦布爾的最高溫度？
22°C 48%
23°C 30%
21°C 22%
24°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
8%
21°C
22%
22°C
48%
23°C
30%
24°C
9%
25°C
6%
26°C
5%
27°C
3%
28°C或以上
2%
22°C 48%
23°C 30%
21°C 22%
24°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
18°C或以下
$161 交易量
<1%
19°C
$161 交易量
<1%
20°C
$8 交易量
8%
21°C
$0 交易量
22%
22°C
$41 交易量
48%
23°C
$13 交易量
30%
24°C
$11 交易量
9%
25°C
$0 交易量
6%
26°C
$0 交易量
5%
27°C
$0 交易量
3%
28°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature near 22°C for Istanbul on September 17, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered light rain that limit daytime heating. Current conditions on September 15 show highs around 23°C under similar overcast skies, with ensembles clustering daytime maxima between 21–23°C rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. This pattern supports the market’s emphasis on 22°C as the leading outcome at 47.5% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 21°C, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the suppressed thermal profile. Updated runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$395結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature near 22°C for Istanbul on September 17, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered light rain that limit daytime heating. Current conditions on September 15 show highs around 23°C under similar overcast skies, with ensembles clustering daytime maxima between 21–23°C rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. This pattern supports the market’s emphasis on 22°C as the leading outcome at 47.5% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 21°C, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the suppressed thermal profile. Updated runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$395結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRecent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature near 22°C for Istanbul on September 17, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and scattered light rain that limit daytime heating. Current conditions on September 15 show highs around 23°C under similar overcast skies, with ensembles clustering daytime maxima between 21–23°C rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. This pattern supports the market’s emphasis on 22°C as the leading outcome at 47.5% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 21°C, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the suppressed thermal profile. Updated runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions