**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher. Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses. Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
9月15日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
24°C 51%
23°C 31%
25°C 14%
22°C 4%
最新
$11,136 交易量
最新
$11,136 交易量
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
31%
24°C
51%
25°C
14%
26°C
4%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C或以上
<1%
24°C 51%
23°C 31%
25°C 14%
22°C 4%
最新
$11,136 交易量
最新
$11,136 交易量
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
$266 交易量
<1%
20°C
$349 交易量
1%
21°C
$660 交易量
2%
22°C
$681 交易量
4%
23°C
$3,112 交易量
31%
24°C
$1,716 交易量
51%
25°C
$2,538 交易量
14%
26°C
$1,169 交易量
4%
27°C
$228 交易量
<1%
28°C
$208 交易量
<1%
29°C或以上
$208 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher.
Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses.
Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$11,136結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher.
Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses.
Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,136結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET**Forecast consensus for Amsterdam on September 15, 2026, centers on a daily high of 22–24°C, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C (51.5%) and 23°C (30.5%).** Multiple models, including GFS-based guidance, indicate partly to mostly cloudy conditions with southwesterly flow, light winds (10–13 mph or 16–21 km/h), and minimal precipitation risk, supporting modest daytime warming above the long-term average high of ~19.3°C but without strong southerly advection or clear skies that would push readings higher. Key scientific drivers include the current synoptic pattern of mild Atlantic-influenced air under a weak pressure gradient, limiting both intensification and sharp cooling. Historical context shows September 15 highs have varied widely (records near 31°C in 2020 versus cooler outliers below 15°C), yet recent model runs have converged on the low-to-mid 20s with low spread, explaining the narrow market focus around 23–24°C. Probabilities for 25°C+ remain modest (under 16% combined) due to persistent cloud cover and lack of stronger warm-air transport, while sub-22°C outcomes sit at low single digits given the absence of incoming cooler air masses. Upcoming factors include the next model cycles and any late adjustments to cloud or wind forecasts, which could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Traders appear to treat the current ensemble agreement as reliable given the short time horizon to resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions