Forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with southerly winds on September 14, 2026, favoring maximum solar heating and supporting a daily high near 30–31 °C before increased moisture and showers arrive the following day. Recent model runs show limited spread, with afternoon temperatures peaking under light cloud cover and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology for Tokyo. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with these verified forecasts, assigning the highest probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes while discounting extremes given the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月14日東京氣溫最高？
9月14日東京氣溫最高？
30°C 43%
31°C 31%
29°C 15%
32°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
25°C或以下
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
15%
30°C
43%
31°C
31%
32°C
7%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C或以上
<1%
30°C 43%
31°C 31%
29°C 15%
32°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
25°C或以下
$304 交易量
1%
26°C
$48 交易量
2%
27°C
$104 交易量
4%
28°C
$69 交易量
4%
29°C
$620 交易量
15%
30°C
$572 交易量
43%
31°C
$932 交易量
31%
32°C
$103 交易量
7%
33°C
$58 交易量
2%
34°C
$131 交易量
2%
35°C或以上
$135 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with southerly winds on September 14, 2026, favoring maximum solar heating and supporting a daily high near 30–31 °C before increased moisture and showers arrive the following day. Recent model runs show limited spread, with afternoon temperatures peaking under light cloud cover and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology for Tokyo. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with these verified forecasts, assigning the highest probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes while discounting extremes given the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$3,077結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with southerly winds on September 14, 2026, favoring maximum solar heating and supporting a daily high near 30–31 °C before increased moisture and showers arrive the following day. Recent model runs show limited spread, with afternoon temperatures peaking under light cloud cover and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology for Tokyo. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with these verified forecasts, assigning the highest probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes while discounting extremes given the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,077結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETForecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with southerly winds on September 14, 2026, favoring maximum solar heating and supporting a daily high near 30–31 °C before increased moisture and showers arrive the following day. Recent model runs show limited spread, with afternoon temperatures peaking under light cloud cover and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer climatology for Tokyo. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with these verified forecasts, assigning the highest probabilities to 30 °C and 31 °C outcomes while discounting extremes given the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions