Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS and European ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 15 most likely between 13–17 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting mild maritime air under variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus clustering around 15–17 °C reflects small differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough, which could alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. These outcomes sit well above the 1991–2020 average low of 11 °C for the date, consistent with the current warmer-than-normal pattern. Resolution will hinge on official KNMI observations, with any late-day clearing or stronger winds the key variables that could shift probabilities among the tightly grouped central outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日阿姆斯特丹的最低溫度？
9月15日阿姆斯特丹的最低溫度？
11°C或以下 37%
17°C 30%
16°C 30%
15°C 28%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
11°C或以下
37%
12°C
8%
13°C
14%
14°C
19%
15°C
28%
16°C
30%
17°C
30%
18°C
19%
19°C
18%
20°C
2%
21°C或更高
1%
11°C或以下 37%
17°C 30%
16°C 30%
15°C 28%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
11°C或以下
$10 交易量
37%
12°C
$10 交易量
8%
13°C
$39 交易量
14%
14°C
$0 交易量
19%
15°C
$0 交易量
28%
16°C
$0 交易量
30%
17°C
$9 交易量
30%
18°C
$0 交易量
19%
19°C
$0 交易量
18%
20°C
$10 交易量
2%
21°C或更高
$128 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS and European ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 15 most likely between 13–17 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting mild maritime air under variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus clustering around 15–17 °C reflects small differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough, which could alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. These outcomes sit well above the 1991–2020 average low of 11 °C for the date, consistent with the current warmer-than-normal pattern. Resolution will hinge on official KNMI observations, with any late-day clearing or stronger winds the key variables that could shift probabilities among the tightly grouped central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
交易量
$206結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS and European ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 15 most likely between 13–17 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting mild maritime air under variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus clustering around 15–17 °C reflects small differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough, which could alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. These outcomes sit well above the 1991–2020 average low of 11 °C for the date, consistent with the current warmer-than-normal pattern. Resolution will hinge on official KNMI observations, with any late-day clearing or stronger winds the key variables that could shift probabilities among the tightly grouped central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$206結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETRecent forecast model runs from sources including the GFS and European ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 15 most likely between 13–17 °C, driven by southerly flow advecting mild maritime air under variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Trader consensus clustering around 15–17 °C reflects small differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise arrival of a weak trough, which could alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. These outcomes sit well above the 1991–2020 average low of 11 °C for the date, consistent with the current warmer-than-normal pattern. Resolution will hinge on official KNMI observations, with any late-day clearing or stronger winds the key variables that could shift probabilities among the tightly grouped central outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions