Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於巴黎9月15日最高溫度？
巴黎9月15日最高溫度？
32°C 46%
33°C 36%
31°C 11%
30°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
26°C或以下
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
11%
32°C
46%
33°C
25%
34°C
5%
35°C
4%
36°C或以上
2%
32°C 46%
33°C 36%
31°C 11%
30°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
26°C或以下
$10 交易量
2%
27°C
$10 交易量
2%
28°C
$7 交易量
2%
29°C
$15 交易量
3%
30°C
$0 交易量
8%
31°C
$0 交易量
11%
32°C
$1,610 交易量
46%
33°C
$0 交易量
25%
34°C
$88 交易量
5%
35°C
$10 交易量
4%
36°C或以上
$10 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$1,760結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,760結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETForecast models from sources like GFS indicate a warm southwesterly flow and clear to mostly sunny conditions will drive Paris temperatures well above the 21.6°C September 15 climatological average on the 15th, supporting the market's strong 61% implied probability for a 32°C high. Afternoon peaks are projected near 31–32°C (roughly 88°F) under light winds and minimal cloud cover, with some runs allowing brief excursions toward 33°C if mixing is stronger. This setup follows a ridge of high pressure building over western Europe, though a northwest shift later in the period introduces modest downside risk toward 31°C. Historical precedent shows September 15 highs reaching 34.3°C, yet current guidance clusters tightly around the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, explaining why outcomes of 34°C or higher carry only 11% implied odds while cooler results remain lower probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions