Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a maximum temperature near 17°C in Moscow on September 13, supporting the 45.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. A ridge of high pressure over central Russia is promoting mostly clear conditions and moderate daytime heating typical for mid-September climatology, when historical averages range 15–18°C. Limited model spread keeps 16°C and 18°C as secondary possibilities at 22.5% and 18.5%, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability due to stable steering patterns and absence of strong frontal systems. Final verification will rely on official Roshydromet observations at the primary Moscow station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月13日莫斯科的最高溫度？
9月13日莫斯科的最高溫度？
17°C 46%
16°C 22%
18°C 19%
19°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-13
13°C或以下
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
4%
16°C
22%
17°C
46%
18°C
19%
19°C
5%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C或以上
<1%
17°C 46%
16°C 22%
18°C 19%
19°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-13
13°C或以下
$223 交易量
1%
14°C
$95 交易量
2%
15°C
$48 交易量
4%
16°C
$132 交易量
22%
17°C
$699 交易量
46%
18°C
$230 交易量
19%
19°C
$197 交易量
5%
20°C
$214 交易量
3%
21°C
$53 交易量
2%
22°C
$134 交易量
<1%
23°C或以上
$144 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a maximum temperature near 17°C in Moscow on September 13, supporting the 45.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. A ridge of high pressure over central Russia is promoting mostly clear conditions and moderate daytime heating typical for mid-September climatology, when historical averages range 15–18°C. Limited model spread keeps 16°C and 18°C as secondary possibilities at 22.5% and 18.5%, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability due to stable steering patterns and absence of strong frontal systems. Final verification will rely on official Roshydromet observations at the primary Moscow station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$2,168結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a maximum temperature near 17°C in Moscow on September 13, supporting the 45.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. A ridge of high pressure over central Russia is promoting mostly clear conditions and moderate daytime heating typical for mid-September climatology, when historical averages range 15–18°C. Limited model spread keeps 16°C and 18°C as secondary possibilities at 22.5% and 18.5%, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability due to stable steering patterns and absence of strong frontal systems. Final verification will rely on official Roshydromet observations at the primary Moscow station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,168結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a maximum temperature near 17°C in Moscow on September 13, supporting the 45.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. A ridge of high pressure over central Russia is promoting mostly clear conditions and moderate daytime heating typical for mid-September climatology, when historical averages range 15–18°C. Limited model spread keeps 16°C and 18°C as secondary possibilities at 22.5% and 18.5%, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability due to stable steering patterns and absence of strong frontal systems. Final verification will rely on official Roshydromet observations at the primary Moscow station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions