Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 17, driven by elevated dew points near 74°F, light southeast winds, and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under a warm, moist Gulf air mass. These conditions contrast with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 67.4°F and explain why traders assign the highest implied probability (50%) to 69°F or below while pricing the 76–77°F bin at 37.5%. Minor model spread and potential for localized urban heat-island effects or brief clearing introduce uncertainty around the exact minimum, keeping cooler bins viable until final observational data from the official reporting station resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月17日奧斯汀最低溫度？
9月17日奧斯汀最低溫度？
華氏69度或以下 100%
70-71°F 40%
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
華氏69度或以下
100%
70-71°F
40%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85華氏度
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F或以上
<1%
華氏69度或以下 100%
70-71°F 40%
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
華氏69度或以下
$0 交易量
100%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
40%
72-73°F
$3 交易量
22%
74-75°F
$4 交易量
22%
76-77°F
$4 交易量
22%
78-79°F
$365 交易量
<1%
80-81°F
$430 交易量
<1%
82-83°F
$30 交易量
<1%
84-85華氏度
$0 交易量
<1%
86-87°F
$46 交易量
<1%
88°F或以上
$41 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 17, driven by elevated dew points near 74°F, light southeast winds, and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under a warm, moist Gulf air mass. These conditions contrast with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 67.4°F and explain why traders assign the highest implied probability (50%) to 69°F or below while pricing the 76–77°F bin at 37.5%. Minor model spread and potential for localized urban heat-island effects or brief clearing introduce uncertainty around the exact minimum, keeping cooler bins viable until final observational data from the official reporting station resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
交易量
$923結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 17, driven by elevated dew points near 74°F, light southeast winds, and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under a warm, moist Gulf air mass. These conditions contrast with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 67.4°F and explain why traders assign the highest implied probability (50%) to 69°F or below while pricing the 76–77°F bin at 37.5%. Minor model spread and potential for localized urban heat-island effects or brief clearing introduce uncertainty around the exact minimum, keeping cooler bins viable until final observational data from the official reporting station resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$923結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETRecent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 17, driven by elevated dew points near 74°F, light southeast winds, and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under a warm, moist Gulf air mass. These conditions contrast with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 67.4°F and explain why traders assign the highest implied probability (50%) to 69°F or below while pricing the 76–77°F bin at 37.5%. Minor model spread and potential for localized urban heat-island effects or brief clearing introduce uncertainty around the exact minimum, keeping cooler bins viable until final observational data from the official reporting station resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions