Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 27°C high in Wuhan at Tianhe International Airport on May 14 (34% implied probability), edging out 28°C (25%) and 26°C (20%), driven by divergent short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF models amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity capping daytime heating. Recent observations show volatility—May 11 peaked near 31°C under clearer skies, but May 12-13 brought overcast conditions and dewpoints near 20°C, suppressing peaks to 26-27°C range consistent with mid-May climatology (average highs 26-28°C). Key differentiators include afternoon cloud breaks allowing insolation for 28°C+ versus sustained stratus for 26°C; new CMA updates and ensemble runs expected overnight could sharpen odds before resolution tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 14?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 14?
27°C 31%
28°C 27%
26°C 20.1%
29°C 16%
$17,862 交易量
$17,862 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
12%
26°C
20%
27°C
31%
28°C
27%
29°C
16%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 31%
28°C 27%
26°C 20.1%
29°C 16%
$17,862 交易量
$17,862 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
12%
26°C
20%
27°C
31%
28°C
27%
29°C
16%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 27°C high in Wuhan at Tianhe International Airport on May 14 (34% implied probability), edging out 28°C (25%) and 26°C (20%), driven by divergent short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF models amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity capping daytime heating. Recent observations show volatility—May 11 peaked near 31°C under clearer skies, but May 12-13 brought overcast conditions and dewpoints near 20°C, suppressing peaks to 26-27°C range consistent with mid-May climatology (average highs 26-28°C). Key differentiators include afternoon cloud breaks allowing insolation for 28°C+ versus sustained stratus for 26°C; new CMA updates and ensemble runs expected overnight could sharpen odds before resolution tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions