Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, including weaponization sites in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back estimated timelines for weapon development according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Officials have confirmed Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment activities, with stockpiles remaining inaccessible amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations. These developments, combined with continued international pressure and verification challenges for the IAEA, underpin the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Scheduled talks and potential further enforcement actions could further influence the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$193,463 交易量
$193,463 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$193,463 交易量
$193,463 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, including weaponization sites in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back estimated timelines for weapon development according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Officials have confirmed Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment activities, with stockpiles remaining inaccessible amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations. These developments, combined with continued international pressure and verification challenges for the IAEA, underpin the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Scheduled talks and potential further enforcement actions could further influence the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$193,463結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, including weaponization sites in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back estimated timelines for weapon development according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Officials have confirmed Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment activities, with stockpiles remaining inaccessible amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations. These developments, combined with continued international pressure and verification challenges for the IAEA, underpin the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Scheduled talks and potential further enforcement actions could further influence the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$193,463結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, including weaponization sites in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back estimated timelines for weapon development according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Officials have confirmed Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment activities, with stockpiles remaining inaccessible amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations. These developments, combined with continued international pressure and verification challenges for the IAEA, underpin the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Scheduled talks and potential further enforcement actions could further influence the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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