Recent diplomatic engagement and military strikes that damaged Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and 2026 have reduced operational capacity for rapid weaponization, while IAEA reports highlight unresolved access issues and a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium without confirmed diversion to explosive testing. Trader consensus at 97.8% for no test before 2027 reflects the short remaining timeline, absence of breakout signals in public statements or satellite data, and ongoing talks aimed at de-escalation. A sudden doctrinal shift by hardliners or collapse of negotiations could still prompt accelerated efforts, though technical hurdles in reconstitution and international monitoring constraints limit near-term testing prospects.