Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, inflicting documented damage that has buried or rendered inaccessible much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile while halting large-scale centrifuge operations. IAEA assessments confirm restricted inspections, no radiological releases, and an absence of detectable weaponization activity since the strikes, with satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence indicating slowed recovery and extended timelines for any path to a testable device. Iran’s leadership has reiterated commitments against nuclear weapons amid ongoing diplomatic contacts, reinforcing trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the 2027 deadline. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rebuilding at hardened sites, accelerated decisions by successor leadership, or successful recovery of buried materials enabling covert progress.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$246,408 交易量
$246,408 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$246,408 交易量
$246,408 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, inflicting documented damage that has buried or rendered inaccessible much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile while halting large-scale centrifuge operations. IAEA assessments confirm restricted inspections, no radiological releases, and an absence of detectable weaponization activity since the strikes, with satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence indicating slowed recovery and extended timelines for any path to a testable device. Iran’s leadership has reiterated commitments against nuclear weapons amid ongoing diplomatic contacts, reinforcing trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the 2027 deadline.
Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rebuilding at hardened sites, accelerated decisions by successor leadership, or successful recovery of buried materials enabling covert progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$246,408結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, inflicting documented damage that has buried or rendered inaccessible much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile while halting large-scale centrifuge operations. IAEA assessments confirm restricted inspections, no radiological releases, and an absence of detectable weaponization activity since the strikes, with satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence indicating slowed recovery and extended timelines for any path to a testable device. Iran’s leadership has reiterated commitments against nuclear weapons amid ongoing diplomatic contacts, reinforcing trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the 2027 deadline.
Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rebuilding at hardened sites, accelerated decisions by successor leadership, or successful recovery of buried materials enabling covert progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$246,408結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, inflicting documented damage that has buried or rendered inaccessible much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile while halting large-scale centrifuge operations. IAEA assessments confirm restricted inspections, no radiological releases, and an absence of detectable weaponization activity since the strikes, with satellite imagery and U.S. intelligence indicating slowed recovery and extended timelines for any path to a testable device. Iran’s leadership has reiterated commitments against nuclear weapons amid ongoing diplomatic contacts, reinforcing trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the 2027 deadline. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rebuilding at hardened sites, accelerated decisions by successor leadership, or successful recovery of buried materials enabling covert progress.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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