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icon for 以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？
政治·中東

以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？

icon for 以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？
政治·中東

以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？

$565,817 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$565,817 交易量

Polymarket

6月30日

$459,604 交易量

1%

July 31

$63,587 交易量

10%

December 31

$41,743 交易量

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces remain positioned north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon following ground advances confirmed by Prime Minister Netanyahu in late May 2026, expanding a buffer zone established earlier in the 2026 Lebanon war. Ceasefire extensions and U.S.-brokered talks in June produced agreements on “pilot zones” for Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah withdrawal north of the river, yet Israeli officials have stated troops will stay in security areas without a fixed timeline until threats are eliminated. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have linked any broader deal to Israeli withdrawal, a condition rejected by Israel, while sporadic strikes continue amid partial returns of displaced civilians. UNIFIL’s mandate ends in December 2026, adding pressure on implementation of Resolution 1701. These factors shape trader views on whether diplomatic or military timelines will produce a verified pullback by the market’s resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$565,817
市場開放時間
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces remain positioned north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon following ground advances confirmed by Prime Minister Netanyahu in late May 2026, expanding a buffer zone established earlier in the 2026 Lebanon war. Ceasefire extensions and U.S.-brokered talks in June produced agreements on “pilot zones” for Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah withdrawal north of the river, yet Israeli officials have stated troops will stay in security areas without a fixed timeline until threats are eliminated. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have linked any broader deal to Israeli withdrawal, a condition rejected by Israel, while sporadic strikes continue amid partial returns of displaced civilians. UNIFIL’s mandate ends in December 2026, adding pressure on implementation of Resolution 1701. These factors shape trader views on whether diplomatic or military timelines will produce a verified pullback by the market’s resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
交易量
$565,817
市場開放時間
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 49%, followed by "July 31" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？" has generated $565.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？" is "December 31" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "July 31" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "以色列軍隊在…前從利塔尼河外撤退？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.