Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) flows and widespread cloud cover over Manila have limited nighttime radiative cooling, anchoring the daily minimum temperature near 23°C according to PAGASA and international model consensus. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows of 24–26°C under similar humid, overcast conditions, with current forecasts indicating 25–26°C ranges that traders interpret as aligning closely with the 23°C threshold given measurement resolution and urban heat island effects. This produces the 99.5% market-implied probability. A sudden break in cloud cover allowing stronger longwave radiation loss or an unexpected dry slot could push the low below 23°C, though such shifts remain unlikely given stable steering patterns and ongoing monsoon activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月29日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
8月29日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
23°C 99.5%
21°C或以下 1.0%
22°C <1%
24°C <1%
$4,328 交易量
$4,328 交易量
2026-08-29
21°C或以下
否
22°C
否
23°C
是
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C或更高
否
23°C 99.5%
21°C或以下 1.0%
22°C <1%
24°C <1%
$4,328 交易量
$4,328 交易量
2026-08-29
21°C或以下
$407 交易量
否
22°C
$622 交易量
否
23°C
$592 交易量
是
24°C
$717 交易量
否
25°C
$614 交易量
否
26°C
$510 交易量
否
27°C
$156 交易量
否
28°C
$117 交易量
否
29°C
$379 交易量
否
30°C
$105 交易量
否
31°C或更高
$109 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) flows and widespread cloud cover over Manila have limited nighttime radiative cooling, anchoring the daily minimum temperature near 23°C according to PAGASA and international model consensus. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows of 24–26°C under similar humid, overcast conditions, with current forecasts indicating 25–26°C ranges that traders interpret as aligning closely with the 23°C threshold given measurement resolution and urban heat island effects. This produces the 99.5% market-implied probability. A sudden break in cloud cover allowing stronger longwave radiation loss or an unexpected dry slot could push the low below 23°C, though such shifts remain unlikely given stable steering patterns and ongoing monsoon activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$4,328結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) flows and widespread cloud cover over Manila have limited nighttime radiative cooling, anchoring the daily minimum temperature near 23°C according to PAGASA and international model consensus. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows of 24–26°C under similar humid, overcast conditions, with current forecasts indicating 25–26°C ranges that traders interpret as aligning closely with the 23°C threshold given measurement resolution and urban heat island effects. This produces the 99.5% market-implied probability. A sudden break in cloud cover allowing stronger longwave radiation loss or an unexpected dry slot could push the low below 23°C, though such shifts remain unlikely given stable steering patterns and ongoing monsoon activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,328結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) flows and widespread cloud cover over Manila have limited nighttime radiative cooling, anchoring the daily minimum temperature near 23°C according to PAGASA and international model consensus. Historical climatology for late August shows typical lows of 24–26°C under similar humid, overcast conditions, with current forecasts indicating 25–26°C ranges that traders interpret as aligning closely with the 23°C threshold given measurement resolution and urban heat island effects. This produces the 99.5% market-implied probability. A sudden break in cloud cover allowing stronger longwave radiation loss or an unexpected dry slot could push the low below 23°C, though such shifts remain unlikely given stable steering patterns and ongoing monsoon activity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions