The observed minimum temperature of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport on September 5, 2026, directly supports the leading 58-59°F outcome in trader sentiment. This reading aligns with typical early-September marine layer influence, where persistent onshore flow and overnight fog keep lows near or slightly above the 56°F climatological average despite a 74°F daytime peak. No anomalous atmospheric setup—such as strong high pressure or offshore winds—emerged to drive cooler readings toward the 47°F-or-below range or warmer thresholds above 60°F. Recent model consensus and station data reinforced expectations of upper-50s lows under stable west-northwest flow, producing the current market-implied probabilities without significant late revisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於舊金山9月5日的最低溫度？
舊金山9月5日的最低溫度？
50-51°F 10%
52-53°F 10%
48-49°F 8%
60-61°F <1%
$980 交易量
$980 交易量
2026-09-05
47°F或以下
-
48-49°F
8%
50-51°F
10%
52-53°F
10%
54-55°F
32%
56-57°F
48%
58-59°F
68%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63華氏度
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
華氏66度或以上
<1%
50-51°F 10%
52-53°F 10%
48-49°F 8%
60-61°F <1%
$980 交易量
$980 交易量
2026-09-05
47°F或以下
$18 交易量
-
48-49°F
$38 交易量
8%
50-51°F
$23 交易量
10%
52-53°F
$37 交易量
10%
54-55°F
$35 交易量
32%
56-57°F
$180 交易量
48%
58-59°F
$385 交易量
68%
60-61°F
$94 交易量
<1%
62-63華氏度
$91 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$32 交易量
<1%
華氏66度或以上
$47 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The observed minimum temperature of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport on September 5, 2026, directly supports the leading 58-59°F outcome in trader sentiment. This reading aligns with typical early-September marine layer influence, where persistent onshore flow and overnight fog keep lows near or slightly above the 56°F climatological average despite a 74°F daytime peak. No anomalous atmospheric setup—such as strong high pressure or offshore winds—emerged to drive cooler readings toward the 47°F-or-below range or warmer thresholds above 60°F. Recent model consensus and station data reinforced expectations of upper-50s lows under stable west-northwest flow, producing the current market-implied probabilities without significant late revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$980結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The observed minimum temperature of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport on September 5, 2026, directly supports the leading 58-59°F outcome in trader sentiment. This reading aligns with typical early-September marine layer influence, where persistent onshore flow and overnight fog keep lows near or slightly above the 56°F climatological average despite a 74°F daytime peak. No anomalous atmospheric setup—such as strong high pressure or offshore winds—emerged to drive cooler readings toward the 47°F-or-below range or warmer thresholds above 60°F. Recent model consensus and station data reinforced expectations of upper-50s lows under stable west-northwest flow, producing the current market-implied probabilities without significant late revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$980結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 7:29 AM ETThe observed minimum temperature of 58°F at San Francisco International Airport on September 5, 2026, directly supports the leading 58-59°F outcome in trader sentiment. This reading aligns with typical early-September marine layer influence, where persistent onshore flow and overnight fog keep lows near or slightly above the 56°F climatological average despite a 74°F daytime peak. No anomalous atmospheric setup—such as strong high pressure or offshore winds—emerged to drive cooler readings toward the 47°F-or-below range or warmer thresholds above 60°F. Recent model consensus and station data reinforced expectations of upper-50s lows under stable west-northwest flow, producing the current market-implied probabilities without significant late revisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions