Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are anchoring trader consensus around a 24–25°C high for Tokyo on September 6, with market-implied odds of 38.5% and 30.5% respectively. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance projects a maximum of 25°C under mostly cloudy conditions with later rain, consistent with ensemble outputs showing northerly flow and high humidity limiting daytime heating. These factors suppress temperatures well below the early-September climatological average near 29°C, while minor model spread in timing and intensity of showers creates the narrow edge between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts and refined high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shifts in the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月6日東京氣溫最高？
9月6日東京氣溫最高？
24°C 33%
25°C 31%
23°C 16%
26°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
19°C或以下
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
4%
23°C
16%
24°C
33%
25°C
31%
26°C
14%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C或以上
3%
24°C 33%
25°C 31%
23°C 16%
26°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
19°C或以下
$0 交易量
3%
20°C
$113 交易量
1%
21°C
$168 交易量
3%
22°C
$59 交易量
4%
23°C
$330 交易量
16%
24°C
$123 交易量
33%
25°C
$379 交易量
31%
26°C
$58 交易量
14%
27°C
$212 交易量
4%
28°C
$27 交易量
2%
29°C或以上
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are anchoring trader consensus around a 24–25°C high for Tokyo on September 6, with market-implied odds of 38.5% and 30.5% respectively. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance projects a maximum of 25°C under mostly cloudy conditions with later rain, consistent with ensemble outputs showing northerly flow and high humidity limiting daytime heating. These factors suppress temperatures well below the early-September climatological average near 29°C, while minor model spread in timing and intensity of showers creates the narrow edge between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts and refined high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shifts in the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,470結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are anchoring trader consensus around a 24–25°C high for Tokyo on September 6, with market-implied odds of 38.5% and 30.5% respectively. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance projects a maximum of 25°C under mostly cloudy conditions with later rain, consistent with ensemble outputs showing northerly flow and high humidity limiting daytime heating. These factors suppress temperatures well below the early-September climatological average near 29°C, while minor model spread in timing and intensity of showers creates the narrow edge between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts and refined high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shifts in the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,470結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETPersistent rain and extensive cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are anchoring trader consensus around a 24–25°C high for Tokyo on September 6, with market-implied odds of 38.5% and 30.5% respectively. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance projects a maximum of 25°C under mostly cloudy conditions with later rain, consistent with ensemble outputs showing northerly flow and high humidity limiting daytime heating. These factors suppress temperatures well below the early-September climatological average near 29°C, while minor model spread in timing and intensity of showers creates the narrow edge between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Updated JMA forecasts and refined high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shifts in the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions