**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月11日東京的最低溫度？
9月11日東京的最低溫度？
19°C 100.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$7,813 交易量
$7,813 交易量
2026-09-11
14°C或以下
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
是
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C或以上
否
19°C 100.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$7,813 交易量
$7,813 交易量
2026-09-11
14°C或以下
$86 交易量
否
15°C
$107 交易量
否
16°C
$467 交易量
否
17°C
$501 交易量
否
18°C
$2,510 交易量
否
19°C
$1,282 交易量
是
20°C
$2,379 交易量
否
21°C
$127 交易量
否
22°C
$72 交易量
否
23°C
$191 交易量
否
24°C或以上
$91 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$7,813結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,813結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions