**Current meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a minimum temperature of 13°C for Wellington on September 4, 2026, with overnight lows stabilizing near this level under clear to partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwest winds.** This consensus aligns with measured temperatures remaining above lower thresholds throughout the evening, consistent with spring climatology where minimums typically range 8–12°C but are elevated by the prevailing synoptic pattern. The near-certain market-implied outcome of 13°C reflects traders’ assessment of real-time data and model agreement, with minimal divergence in guidance. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unforecast rapid radiational cooling event or station-specific microclimate variation pushing the official minimum below 13°C before midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
9月4日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
13°C 100.0%
7°C或以下 <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$4,032 交易量
$4,032 交易量
2026-09-04
7°C或以下
否
8°C
否
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
是
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C或更高
否
13°C 100.0%
7°C或以下 <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$4,032 交易量
$4,032 交易量
2026-09-04
7°C或以下
$191 交易量
否
8°C
$107 交易量
否
9°C
$157 交易量
否
10°C
$160 交易量
否
11°C
$226 交易量
否
12°C
$241 交易量
否
13°C
$432 交易量
是
14°C
$375 交易量
否
15°C
$262 交易量
否
16°C
$1,085 交易量
否
17°C或更高
$796 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a minimum temperature of 13°C for Wellington on September 4, 2026, with overnight lows stabilizing near this level under clear to partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwest winds.** This consensus aligns with measured temperatures remaining above lower thresholds throughout the evening, consistent with spring climatology where minimums typically range 8–12°C but are elevated by the prevailing synoptic pattern. The near-certain market-implied outcome of 13°C reflects traders’ assessment of real-time data and model agreement, with minimal divergence in guidance. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unforecast rapid radiational cooling event or station-specific microclimate variation pushing the official minimum below 13°C before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$4,032結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a minimum temperature of 13°C for Wellington on September 4, 2026, with overnight lows stabilizing near this level under clear to partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwest winds.** This consensus aligns with measured temperatures remaining above lower thresholds throughout the evening, consistent with spring climatology where minimums typically range 8–12°C but are elevated by the prevailing synoptic pattern. The near-certain market-implied outcome of 13°C reflects traders’ assessment of real-time data and model agreement, with minimal divergence in guidance. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unforecast rapid radiational cooling event or station-specific microclimate variation pushing the official minimum below 13°C before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,032結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Current meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a minimum temperature of 13°C for Wellington on September 4, 2026, with overnight lows stabilizing near this level under clear to partly cloudy conditions and moderate northwest winds.** This consensus aligns with measured temperatures remaining above lower thresholds throughout the evening, consistent with spring climatology where minimums typically range 8–12°C but are elevated by the prevailing synoptic pattern. The near-certain market-implied outcome of 13°C reflects traders’ assessment of real-time data and model agreement, with minimal divergence in guidance. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unforecast rapid radiational cooling event or station-specific microclimate variation pushing the official minimum below 13°C before midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions