The brief window until August 31 leaves little time for a magnitude-8.0 or greater event on the moment magnitude scale, which occurs globally only a handful of times per year on average. USGS seismic monitoring shows no current foreshock sequences, unusual strain accumulation, or other precursors that would elevate short-term odds on major subduction zones or continental faults. Historical catalogs confirm such quakes are rare and lack reliable short-term predictability, supporting the market's strong consensus on "No." An unexpected rupture on a high-risk segment, such as the Cascadia or Nankai troughs, remains theoretically possible but would require rapid model shifts not currently indicated by official data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日前發生超級地震？
8月31日前發生超級地震？
是
5% 機率
最新
最新
2026-08-31
是
5% 機率
最新
最新
2026-08-31
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief window until August 31 leaves little time for a magnitude-8.0 or greater event on the moment magnitude scale, which occurs globally only a handful of times per year on average. USGS seismic monitoring shows no current foreshock sequences, unusual strain accumulation, or other precursors that would elevate short-term odds on major subduction zones or continental faults. Historical catalogs confirm such quakes are rare and lack reliable short-term predictability, supporting the market's strong consensus on "No." An unexpected rupture on a high-risk segment, such as the Cascadia or Nankai troughs, remains theoretically possible but would require rapid model shifts not currently indicated by official data.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
交易量
$4,595結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief window until August 31 leaves little time for a magnitude-8.0 or greater event on the moment magnitude scale, which occurs globally only a handful of times per year on average. USGS seismic monitoring shows no current foreshock sequences, unusual strain accumulation, or other precursors that would elevate short-term odds on major subduction zones or continental faults. Historical catalogs confirm such quakes are rare and lack reliable short-term predictability, supporting the market's strong consensus on "No." An unexpected rupture on a high-risk segment, such as the Cascadia or Nankai troughs, remains theoretically possible but would require rapid model shifts not currently indicated by official data.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$4,595結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief window until August 31 leaves little time for a magnitude-8.0 or greater event on the moment magnitude scale, which occurs globally only a handful of times per year on average. USGS seismic monitoring shows no current foreshock sequences, unusual strain accumulation, or other precursors that would elevate short-term odds on major subduction zones or continental faults. Historical catalogs confirm such quakes are rare and lack reliable short-term predictability, supporting the market's strong consensus on "No." An unexpected rupture on a high-risk segment, such as the Cascadia or Nankai troughs, remains theoretically possible but would require rapid model shifts not currently indicated by official data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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