Putin's firm consolidation of power, demonstrated by United Russia’s decisive September 2026 parliamentary election victory and ongoing military leadership rotations, underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will materialize this year. Heightened presidential security protocols, elite surveillance, and the absence of any organized faction with both motive and capacity to act have kept risks contained despite reported elite unease over war costs, inflation, and stalled advances in Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes during the vote and modest polling declines have not translated into coordinated challenges. Remaining pathways to a shift include an abrupt fracture among siloviki, a major battlefield reversal, or sudden leadership incapacity, any of which would need to overcome entrenched institutional controls before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5% 機率
$132,539 交易量
$132,539 交易量
2026-12-31
5% 機率
$132,539 交易量
$132,539 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's firm consolidation of power, demonstrated by United Russia’s decisive September 2026 parliamentary election victory and ongoing military leadership rotations, underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will materialize this year. Heightened presidential security protocols, elite surveillance, and the absence of any organized faction with both motive and capacity to act have kept risks contained despite reported elite unease over war costs, inflation, and stalled advances in Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes during the vote and modest polling declines have not translated into coordinated challenges. Remaining pathways to a shift include an abrupt fracture among siloviki, a major battlefield reversal, or sudden leadership incapacity, any of which would need to overcome entrenched institutional controls before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
交易量
$132,539結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's firm consolidation of power, demonstrated by United Russia’s decisive September 2026 parliamentary election victory and ongoing military leadership rotations, underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will materialize this year. Heightened presidential security protocols, elite surveillance, and the absence of any organized faction with both motive and capacity to act have kept risks contained despite reported elite unease over war costs, inflation, and stalled advances in Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes during the vote and modest polling declines have not translated into coordinated challenges. Remaining pathways to a shift include an abrupt fracture among siloviki, a major battlefield reversal, or sudden leadership incapacity, any of which would need to overcome entrenched institutional controls before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$132,539結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETPutin's firm consolidation of power, demonstrated by United Russia’s decisive September 2026 parliamentary election victory and ongoing military leadership rotations, underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will materialize this year. Heightened presidential security protocols, elite surveillance, and the absence of any organized faction with both motive and capacity to act have kept risks contained despite reported elite unease over war costs, inflation, and stalled advances in Ukraine. Ukrainian drone strikes during the vote and modest polling declines have not translated into coordinated challenges. Remaining pathways to a shift include an abrupt fracture among siloviki, a major battlefield reversal, or sudden leadership incapacity, any of which would need to overcome entrenched institutional controls before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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