Ongoing diplomatic initiatives under the current U.S. administration have failed to produce formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over any Ukrainian territory, despite a 28-point peace framework floated in late 2025 that referenced de facto control of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Multiple rounds of talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva earlier this year, collapsed amid Ukrainian refusal to cede ground and bipartisan congressional measures such as the Non-Recognition of Russian Annexation Act that explicitly bar implied endorsement of Russian claims. Recent U.S.-brokered ceasefires, including the three-day halt in May 2026, have produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing territorial concessions or official sovereignty statements. With negotiations stalled and Russian battlefield gains slowing, traders assign a 77.5% implied probability that the United States will not extend formal recognition before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$41,804 交易量
$41,804 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$41,804 交易量
$41,804 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.Ongoing diplomatic initiatives under the current U.S. administration have failed to produce formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over any Ukrainian territory, despite a 28-point peace framework floated in late 2025 that referenced de facto control of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Multiple rounds of talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva earlier this year, collapsed amid Ukrainian refusal to cede ground and bipartisan congressional measures such as the Non-Recognition of Russian Annexation Act that explicitly bar implied endorsement of Russian claims. Recent U.S.-brokered ceasefires, including the three-day halt in May 2026, have produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing territorial concessions or official sovereignty statements. With negotiations stalled and Russian battlefield gains slowing, traders assign a 77.5% implied probability that the United States will not extend formal recognition before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ET
交易量
$41,804結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.Ongoing diplomatic initiatives under the current U.S. administration have failed to produce formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over any Ukrainian territory, despite a 28-point peace framework floated in late 2025 that referenced de facto control of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Multiple rounds of talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva earlier this year, collapsed amid Ukrainian refusal to cede ground and bipartisan congressional measures such as the Non-Recognition of Russian Annexation Act that explicitly bar implied endorsement of Russian claims. Recent U.S.-brokered ceasefires, including the three-day halt in May 2026, have produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing territorial concessions or official sovereignty statements. With negotiations stalled and Russian battlefield gains slowing, traders assign a 77.5% implied probability that the United States will not extend formal recognition before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
交易量
$41,804結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic initiatives under the current U.S. administration have failed to produce formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over any Ukrainian territory, despite a 28-point peace framework floated in late 2025 that referenced de facto control of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Multiple rounds of talks, including trilateral meetings in Geneva earlier this year, collapsed amid Ukrainian refusal to cede ground and bipartisan congressional measures such as the Non-Recognition of Russian Annexation Act that explicitly bar implied endorsement of Russian claims. Recent U.S.-brokered ceasefires, including the three-day halt in May 2026, have produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing territorial concessions or official sovereignty statements. With negotiations stalled and Russian battlefield gains slowing, traders assign a 77.5% implied probability that the United States will not extend formal recognition before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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