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icon for 到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？
科技·商務

到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？

icon for 到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？
科技·商務

到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？

12月 31

12月 31

$125,904 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$125,904 交易量

Polymarket

OpenAI

$22,572 交易量

34%

Google

$17,193 交易量

20%

阿里巴巴

$3,366 交易量

13%

Meta

$14,909 交易量

13%

xAI

$8,870 交易量

13%

Z.ai

$2,568 交易量

9%

字節跳動

$2,876 交易量

8%

Moonshot

$7,563 交易量

8%

DeepSeek

$20,584 交易量

8%

百度

$1,958 交易量

7%

微軟

$5,165 交易量

6%

美團

$2,980 交易量

5%

亞馬遜

$5,106 交易量

4%

Mistral

$10,194 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude 5 series—particularly Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5—currently leads most independent LLM leaderboards on intelligence, reasoning, and coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Humanity’s Last Exam, giving the company the clearest edge in trader sentiment for holding the #1 model by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in several evaluations and benefits from broad ecosystem integration, while Google’s Gemini 3.x variants and xAI’s Grok 4.x releases trail slightly but continue rapid iteration. Recent July 2026 launches compressed the gap among frontier labs, and further model drops expected through Q4 could shift relative positioning before December 31 resolution. Traders monitor benchmark updates, real-world capability demonstrations, and any major safety or scaling announcements as key swing factors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$125,904
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude 5 series—particularly Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5—currently leads most independent LLM leaderboards on intelligence, reasoning, and coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Humanity’s Last Exam, giving the company the clearest edge in trader sentiment for holding the #1 model by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in several evaluations and benefits from broad ecosystem integration, while Google’s Gemini 3.x variants and xAI’s Grok 4.x releases trail slightly but continue rapid iteration. Recent July 2026 launches compressed the gap among frontier labs, and further model drops expected through Q4 could shift relative positioning before December 31 resolution. Traders monitor benchmark updates, real-world capability demonstrations, and any major safety or scaling announcements as key swing factors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$125,904
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI" at 34%, followed by "Google" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？" has generated $125.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？" is "OpenAI" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "到12月31日，哪些公司將擁有排名第一的人工智能模型？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.