The retirement of longtime Rep. Jerry Nadler has created a closely contested Democratic primary in New York's 12th congressional district, scheduled for June 23, with trader consensus reflecting a near-even split between Assemblymember Micah Lasher and Assemblymember Alex Bores. Nadler's February endorsement has bolstered Lasher's position among Upper West Side voters and party insiders, while Bores draws support from the Upper East Side through emphasis on issues like AI regulation and local policy priorities. Jack Schlossberg, leveraging family name recognition and social media outreach, maintains a smaller share amid a crowded field that also includes George Conway. Recent candidate forums have highlighted divisions over turnout among older voters, who are projected to dominate the electorate, and debates on foreign policy and domestic affordability. The race remains sensitive to late endorsements, polling shifts, and mobilization efforts in the final weeks before the primary.