US extended deterrence commitments and alliance structures continue to anchor trader consensus against rapid nuclear acquisition by partners such as Saudi Arabia, Japan, or South Korea before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that permits limited uranium enrichment after two years, have sparked proliferation concerns yet remain confined to energy programs without evidence of weaponization timelines or testing. Expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026 has shifted focus to US-Russia and US-China dynamics, while technical hurdles, verification requirements, and risks of alliance rupture make independent breakout improbable in the remaining months of 2026. These factors reinforce the 94% implied probability for no acquisition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$209,398 交易量
$209,398 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 機率
$209,398 交易量
$209,398 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments and alliance structures continue to anchor trader consensus against rapid nuclear acquisition by partners such as Saudi Arabia, Japan, or South Korea before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that permits limited uranium enrichment after two years, have sparked proliferation concerns yet remain confined to energy programs without evidence of weaponization timelines or testing. Expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026 has shifted focus to US-Russia and US-China dynamics, while technical hurdles, verification requirements, and risks of alliance rupture make independent breakout improbable in the remaining months of 2026. These factors reinforce the 94% implied probability for no acquisition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$209,398結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments and alliance structures continue to anchor trader consensus against rapid nuclear acquisition by partners such as Saudi Arabia, Japan, or South Korea before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that permits limited uranium enrichment after two years, have sparked proliferation concerns yet remain confined to energy programs without evidence of weaponization timelines or testing. Expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026 has shifted focus to US-Russia and US-China dynamics, while technical hurdles, verification requirements, and risks of alliance rupture make independent breakout improbable in the remaining months of 2026. These factors reinforce the 94% implied probability for no acquisition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$209,398結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US extended deterrence commitments and alliance structures continue to anchor trader consensus against rapid nuclear acquisition by partners such as Saudi Arabia, Japan, or South Korea before 2027. Recent developments, including the July 2026 US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that permits limited uranium enrichment after two years, have sparked proliferation concerns yet remain confined to energy programs without evidence of weaponization timelines or testing. Expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026 has shifted focus to US-Russia and US-China dynamics, while technical hurdles, verification requirements, and risks of alliance rupture make independent breakout improbable in the remaining months of 2026. These factors reinforce the 94% implied probability for no acquisition.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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