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icon for 美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？
政治·委內瑞拉

美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？

icon for 美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？
政治·委內瑞拉

美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$2,004,013 交易量

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$2,004,013 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The 79.5% implied probability that the United States will not invade Cuba in 2026 stems from sustained U.S. diplomatic engagement and targeted economic measures rather than military mobilization. Senior U.S. officials conducted direct talks in Havana in April and May, including a CIA delegation visit focused on reforms, satellite connectivity, and humanitarian relief amid Cuba’s energy crisis triggered by oil sanctions. An executive order and related tariffs have pressured foreign suppliers, while President Trump has publicly referenced potential deals and a “friendly takeover” without authorizing troop movements or invasion rehearsals, as confirmed by U.S. Southern Command leadership. These steps align with longstanding patterns of sanctions and negotiations over direct conflict, leaving little basis for market participants to price in an invasion scenario before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$2,004,013
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The 79.5% implied probability that the United States will not invade Cuba in 2026 stems from sustained U.S. diplomatic engagement and targeted economic measures rather than military mobilization. Senior U.S. officials conducted direct talks in Havana in April and May, including a CIA delegation visit focused on reforms, satellite connectivity, and humanitarian relief amid Cuba’s energy crisis triggered by oil sanctions. An executive order and related tariffs have pressured foreign suppliers, while President Trump has publicly referenced potential deals and a “friendly takeover” without authorizing troop movements or invasion rehearsals, as confirmed by U.S. Southern Command leadership. These steps align with longstanding patterns of sanctions and negotiations over direct conflict, leaving little basis for market participants to price in an invasion scenario before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$2,004,013
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" is "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.