**Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. already held a bilateral meeting at the White House in July 2025**, during which they addressed tariffs, defense cooperation, and the U.S.-Philippines alliance under the Mutual Defense Treaty. As of October 2026, diplomatic reporting indicates Trump is considering attendance at the ASEAN Summit hosted by the Philippines in mid-November, which would include a bilateral session with Marcos. Preparations are underway in Manila, though the White House has not issued formal confirmation. The two leaders’ prior engagement, combined with ongoing U.S. strategic interests in Southeast Asia and the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations, supports trader expectations of at least one additional meeting before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Uncertainties around scheduling and competing presidential priorities keep the implied probability for “Yes” at 74.5% rather than higher.