Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$27,341 交易量
$27,341 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$27,341 交易量
$27,341 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$13,104 交易量
93%
民主党
$14,237 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$27,341结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$27,341结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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