Trader consensus implies a 94.5% probability of no EU withdrawal before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since the UK's Brexit—a two-year minimum process with frequent extensions and ratification hurdles. Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Poland's President Nawrocki vetoed an EU defense loan (SAFE), escalating tensions with PM Tusk, who warned of exit risks; however, polls confirm 73% Polish support for membership, muting the debate. Hungary's foreign minister rejected Huxit rumors, Italy's Italexit polls at 2%, and no binding referendums or coalition negotiations signal exit. Late shocks like snap elections or Article 7 sanctions could shift odds, but procedural barriers dominate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是
$136,939 交易量
$136,939 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$136,939 交易量
$136,939 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 94.5% probability of no EU withdrawal before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since the UK's Brexit—a two-year minimum process with frequent extensions and ratification hurdles. Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Poland's President Nawrocki vetoed an EU defense loan (SAFE), escalating tensions with PM Tusk, who warned of exit risks; however, polls confirm 73% Polish support for membership, muting the debate. Hungary's foreign minister rejected Huxit rumors, Italy's Italexit polls at 2%, and no binding referendums or coalition negotiations signal exit. Late shocks like snap elections or Article 7 sanctions could shift odds, but procedural barriers dominate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$136,939结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 94.5% probability of no EU withdrawal before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since the UK's Brexit—a two-year minimum process with frequent extensions and ratification hurdles. Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Poland's President Nawrocki vetoed an EU defense loan (SAFE), escalating tensions with PM Tusk, who warned of exit risks; however, polls confirm 73% Polish support for membership, muting the debate. Hungary's foreign minister rejected Huxit rumors, Italy's Italexit polls at 2%, and no binding referendums or coalition negotiations signal exit. Late shocks like snap elections or Article 7 sanctions could shift odds, but procedural barriers dominate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$136,939结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 94.5% probability of no EU withdrawal before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since the UK's Brexit—a two-year minimum process with frequent extensions and ratification hurdles. Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Poland's President Nawrocki vetoed an EU defense loan (SAFE), escalating tensions with PM Tusk, who warned of exit risks; however, polls confirm 73% Polish support for membership, muting the debate. Hungary's foreign minister rejected Huxit rumors, Italy's Italexit polls at 2%, and no binding referendums or coalition negotiations signal exit. Late shocks like snap elections or Article 7 sanctions could shift odds, but procedural barriers dominate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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