California’s deep Democratic lean and coordinated opposition from voting rights groups, including the League of Women Voters and ACLU affiliates, form the main driver behind traders assigning a 62% probability that the voter ID referendum fails. The GOP-backed constitutional amendment qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot on April 24 after exceeding the signature threshold with over 962,000 valid petitions, yet early polling shows divided but insufficient support in a state where mail voting dominates and turnout patterns favor Democrats. Opposition coalitions have already launched campaigns highlighting potential barriers to ballot access and added administrative costs, while historical precedents of similar restrictive measures struggling in blue states reinforce the current market consensus. No major new developments have shifted momentum since qualification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California’s deep Democratic lean and coordinated opposition from voting rights groups, including the League of Women Voters and ACLU affiliates, form the main driver behind traders assigning a 62% probability that the voter ID referendum fails. The GOP-backed constitutional amendment qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot on April 24 after exceeding the signature threshold with over 962,000 valid petitions, yet early polling shows divided but insufficient support in a state where mail voting dominates and turnout patterns favor Democrats. Opposition coalitions have already launched campaigns highlighting potential barriers to ballot access and added administrative costs, while historical precedents of similar restrictive measures struggling in blue states reinforce the current market consensus. No major new developments have shifted momentum since qualification.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$8,091结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California’s deep Democratic lean and coordinated opposition from voting rights groups, including the League of Women Voters and ACLU affiliates, form the main driver behind traders assigning a 62% probability that the voter ID referendum fails. The GOP-backed constitutional amendment qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot on April 24 after exceeding the signature threshold with over 962,000 valid petitions, yet early polling shows divided but insufficient support in a state where mail voting dominates and turnout patterns favor Democrats. Opposition coalitions have already launched campaigns highlighting potential barriers to ballot access and added administrative costs, while historical precedents of similar restrictive measures struggling in blue states reinforce the current market consensus. No major new developments have shifted momentum since qualification.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
交易量
$8,091结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California’s deep Democratic lean and coordinated opposition from voting rights groups, including the League of Women Voters and ACLU affiliates, form the main driver behind traders assigning a 62% probability that the voter ID referendum fails. The GOP-backed constitutional amendment qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot on April 24 after exceeding the signature threshold with over 962,000 valid petitions, yet early polling shows divided but insufficient support in a state where mail voting dominates and turnout patterns favor Democrats. Opposition coalitions have already launched campaigns highlighting potential barriers to ballot access and added administrative costs, while historical precedents of similar restrictive measures struggling in blue states reinforce the current market consensus. No major new developments have shifted momentum since qualification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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