California's deep Democratic voter base and opposition from voting rights organizations form the core driver behind the 58% "No" trader consensus on Proposition 39, the November 2026 voter ID constitutional amendment. The measure, which qualified for the ballot in April 2026 after GOP-backed signature gathering, would require government-issued photo ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while mandating citizenship verification reporting. Recent polling from PPIC in May showed 49% support versus 51% opposition, reflecting the state's long-standing resistance to stricter identification rules, including the 2024 law barring local voter ID mandates. Opposition campaigns and the partisan origin of the initiative further tilt implied probabilities toward rejection, though narrow polling margins leave room for shifts before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
42% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
42% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California's deep Democratic voter base and opposition from voting rights organizations form the core driver behind the 58% "No" trader consensus on Proposition 39, the November 2026 voter ID constitutional amendment. The measure, which qualified for the ballot in April 2026 after GOP-backed signature gathering, would require government-issued photo ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while mandating citizenship verification reporting. Recent polling from PPIC in May showed 49% support versus 51% opposition, reflecting the state's long-standing resistance to stricter identification rules, including the 2024 law barring local voter ID mandates. Opposition campaigns and the partisan origin of the initiative further tilt implied probabilities toward rejection, though narrow polling margins leave room for shifts before election day.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$8,490结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California's deep Democratic voter base and opposition from voting rights organizations form the core driver behind the 58% "No" trader consensus on Proposition 39, the November 2026 voter ID constitutional amendment. The measure, which qualified for the ballot in April 2026 after GOP-backed signature gathering, would require government-issued photo ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while mandating citizenship verification reporting. Recent polling from PPIC in May showed 49% support versus 51% opposition, reflecting the state's long-standing resistance to stricter identification rules, including the 2024 law barring local voter ID mandates. Opposition campaigns and the partisan origin of the initiative further tilt implied probabilities toward rejection, though narrow polling margins leave room for shifts before election day.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
交易量
$8,490结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California's deep Democratic voter base and opposition from voting rights organizations form the core driver behind the 58% "No" trader consensus on Proposition 39, the November 2026 voter ID constitutional amendment. The measure, which qualified for the ballot in April 2026 after GOP-backed signature gathering, would require government-issued photo ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while mandating citizenship verification reporting. Recent polling from PPIC in May showed 49% support versus 51% opposition, reflecting the state's long-standing resistance to stricter identification rules, including the 2024 law barring local voter ID mandates. Opposition campaigns and the partisan origin of the initiative further tilt implied probabilities toward rejection, though narrow polling margins leave room for shifts before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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