Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This strong model agreement, reinforced by midday observations around 14°C with limited solar heating so far, underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Historical mid-May climatology for southeast England places typical highs in the 14–18°C range, and current ensemble spread leaves minimal room for significant deviation. Any late-afternoon clearing or subtle warm advection could realistically allow a brief nudge to 19°C, yet the consensus keeps probabilities for 20°C or higher below 1%. Official Met Office verification from final hourly data will confirm the result.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月17日伦敦气温最高？
5月17日伦敦气温最高？
18°C 99.8%
19°C <1%
17°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$156,653 交易量
$156,653 交易量
2026-05-17
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
18°C 99.8%
19°C <1%
17°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$156,653 交易量
$156,653 交易量
2026-05-17
10°C or below
$997 交易量
<1%
11°C
$1,915 交易量
<1%
12°C
$8,287 交易量
<1%
13°C
$12,717 交易量
<1%
14°C
$13,308 交易量
<1%
15°C
$19,210 交易量
<1%
16°C
$26,720 交易量
<1%
17°C
$29,746 交易量
<1%
18°C
$18,626 交易量
100%
19°C
$18,574 交易量
<1%
20°C or higher
$6,554 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This strong model agreement, reinforced by midday observations around 14°C with limited solar heating so far, underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Historical mid-May climatology for southeast England places typical highs in the 14–18°C range, and current ensemble spread leaves minimal room for significant deviation. Any late-afternoon clearing or subtle warm advection could realistically allow a brief nudge to 19°C, yet the consensus keeps probabilities for 20°C or higher below 1%. Official Met Office verification from final hourly data will confirm the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$156,653结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This strong model agreement, reinforced by midday observations around 14°C with limited solar heating so far, underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Historical mid-May climatology for southeast England places typical highs in the 14–18°C range, and current ensemble spread leaves minimal room for significant deviation. Any late-afternoon clearing or subtle warm advection could realistically allow a brief nudge to 19°C, yet the consensus keeps probabilities for 20°C or higher below 1%. Official Met Office verification from final hourly data will confirm the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$156,653结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts have converged on a daytime maximum near 18°C across London under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow. This strong model agreement, reinforced by midday observations around 14°C with limited solar heating so far, underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Historical mid-May climatology for southeast England places typical highs in the 14–18°C range, and current ensemble spread leaves minimal room for significant deviation. Any late-afternoon clearing or subtle warm advection could realistically allow a brief nudge to 19°C, yet the consensus keeps probabilities for 20°C or higher below 1%. Official Met Office verification from final hourly data will confirm the result.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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