National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on May 17 point to a high near 86°F under mostly sunny skies with easterly winds of 9–13 mph, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 82–87°F range. Sea-breeze circulation from the Atlantic often caps daytime warming in South Florida by introducing cooler marine air after midday, while the current high-pressure ridge favors gradual heating without strong instability. May climatology at Miami International Airport shows normal highs of 86–87°F, with afternoon convection or thin cloud cover frequently trimming peaks by 1–3°F from model guidance. Updated NWS observations through late afternoon will resolve the final reading against these thresholds.