Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a Miami high temperature on May 18 centered in the mid-to-upper 80s, consistent with late-spring climatology where average daily maxima reach 85°F amid warm, moist subtropical air. The tight contest between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F bins reflects modest uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze timing and convective cloud cover, which can suppress peak readings by 1–3°F if thunderstorms develop earlier than expected. Recent model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures and dew points near 75°F, keeping extreme outliers below 5% probability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range as land-sea circulation strengthens.