Uncertainty in short-term model guidance for Tokyo's maximum temperature on June 13 stems primarily from variable cloud cover and precipitation timing during the early tsuyu rainy season transition, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25–27 °C. Ensemble forecasts reflect typical mid-June climatology of 24–28 °C daytime highs, modulated by the strength of the subtropical high, moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect that can add 1–2 °C on sunnier intervals. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks indicating above-average warmth through June provide a slight upward bias, yet day-to-day differences in frontal passage or insolation create genuine spread across resolution thresholds, with traders weighting the latest high-resolution runs and observed trends in regional pressure gradients.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 13?
26°C 34%
27°C 28%
25°C 26%
28°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-06-13
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
7%
25°C
26%
26°C
34%
27°C
28%
28°C
12%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 34%
27°C 28%
25°C 26%
28°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-06-13
21°C or below
$0 交易量
<1%
22°C
$0 交易量
1%
23°C
$20 交易量
2%
24°C
$2 交易量
7%
25°C
$77 交易量
26%
26°C
$7 交易量
34%
27°C
$86 交易量
28%
28°C
$85 交易量
12%
29°C
$16 交易量
5%
30°C
$45 交易量
1%
31°C or higher
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term model guidance for Tokyo's maximum temperature on June 13 stems primarily from variable cloud cover and precipitation timing during the early tsuyu rainy season transition, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25–27 °C. Ensemble forecasts reflect typical mid-June climatology of 24–28 °C daytime highs, modulated by the strength of the subtropical high, moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect that can add 1–2 °C on sunnier intervals. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks indicating above-average warmth through June provide a slight upward bias, yet day-to-day differences in frontal passage or insolation create genuine spread across resolution thresholds, with traders weighting the latest high-resolution runs and observed trends in regional pressure gradients.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$336结束日期
2026-06-13市场开放时间
Jun 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term model guidance for Tokyo's maximum temperature on June 13 stems primarily from variable cloud cover and precipitation timing during the early tsuyu rainy season transition, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25–27 °C. Ensemble forecasts reflect typical mid-June climatology of 24–28 °C daytime highs, modulated by the strength of the subtropical high, moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect that can add 1–2 °C on sunnier intervals. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks indicating above-average warmth through June provide a slight upward bias, yet day-to-day differences in frontal passage or insolation create genuine spread across resolution thresholds, with traders weighting the latest high-resolution runs and observed trends in regional pressure gradients.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$336结束日期
2026-06-13市场开放时间
Jun 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETUncertainty in short-term model guidance for Tokyo's maximum temperature on June 13 stems primarily from variable cloud cover and precipitation timing during the early tsuyu rainy season transition, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 25–27 °C. Ensemble forecasts reflect typical mid-June climatology of 24–28 °C daytime highs, modulated by the strength of the subtropical high, moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect that can add 1–2 °C on sunnier intervals. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks indicating above-average warmth through June provide a slight upward bias, yet day-to-day differences in frontal passage or insolation create genuine spread across resolution thresholds, with traders weighting the latest high-resolution runs and observed trends in regional pressure gradients.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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