Current short-range forecasts for Chengdu project a daily maximum near 30–32°C on June 13 under typical early-summer subtropical monsoon conditions, with light winds and moderate humidity favoring the market’s clustered 31–33°C outcomes. Numerical weather models show limited spread due to stable steering patterns and no strong frontal systems or subtropical ridge strengthening expected in the next 48 hours, though small timing shifts in afternoon convection could add or subtract 1–2°C. Historical June climatology places average highs around 28–30°C with occasional mid-month peaks near 33°C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to 34°C or higher while discounting extremes below 30°C or above 35°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration on June 12 will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.