**Recent official forecasts position 31°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on September 2, 2026.** The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a maximum of 33°C under mostly cloudy skies with only low precipitation chances early in the day, while other models and hourly guidance cluster between 30–32°C amid southerly flow and increasing cloud cover. Primary scientific drivers include the seasonal shift into early September, when climatological normals hover near 29–30°C, combined with an approaching frontal system and low-pressure influences that promote cloudiness and limit insolation. Recent late-August data showed cooling after earlier heat (peaks near 36°C earlier in the month), with August 31 already down to a 28.6°C high. Light winds and high humidity further moderate daytime maxima, while any breaks in cloud cover or stronger southerly advection could nudge readings slightly higher. Market-implied odds (48.5% at 31°C, 25.5% at 30°C, 13.5% at 32°C) reflect this tight consensus around the upper 20s to low 30s, with low probabilities assigned to extremes due to the stable pattern and limited model spread. Updated JMA or numerical guidance on the morning of September 2 will be the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月2日东京气温最高？
9月2日东京气温最高？
31°C 49%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 10%
最新
$10,256 交易量
最新
$10,256 交易量
2026-09-02
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
26%
31°C
49%
32°C
14%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
30°C 26%
32°C 14%
29°C 10%
最新
$10,256 交易量
最新
$10,256 交易量
2026-09-02
26°C or below
$2,174 交易量
<1%
27°C
$430 交易量
1%
28°C
$406 交易量
4%
29°C
$813 交易量
10%
30°C
$1,291 交易量
26%
31°C
$1,135 交易量
49%
32°C
$1,577 交易量
14%
33°C
$1,203 交易量
3%
34°C
$463 交易量
2%
35°C
$408 交易量
<1%
36°C or higher
$354 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 31°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on September 2, 2026.** The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a maximum of 33°C under mostly cloudy skies with only low precipitation chances early in the day, while other models and hourly guidance cluster between 30–32°C amid southerly flow and increasing cloud cover.
Primary scientific drivers include the seasonal shift into early September, when climatological normals hover near 29–30°C, combined with an approaching frontal system and low-pressure influences that promote cloudiness and limit insolation. Recent late-August data showed cooling after earlier heat (peaks near 36°C earlier in the month), with August 31 already down to a 28.6°C high. Light winds and high humidity further moderate daytime maxima, while any breaks in cloud cover or stronger southerly advection could nudge readings slightly higher.
Market-implied odds (48.5% at 31°C, 25.5% at 30°C, 13.5% at 32°C) reflect this tight consensus around the upper 20s to low 30s, with low probabilities assigned to extremes due to the stable pattern and limited model spread. Updated JMA or numerical guidance on the morning of September 2 will be the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$10,256结束日期
2026-09-02市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 31°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on September 2, 2026.** The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a maximum of 33°C under mostly cloudy skies with only low precipitation chances early in the day, while other models and hourly guidance cluster between 30–32°C amid southerly flow and increasing cloud cover.
Primary scientific drivers include the seasonal shift into early September, when climatological normals hover near 29–30°C, combined with an approaching frontal system and low-pressure influences that promote cloudiness and limit insolation. Recent late-August data showed cooling after earlier heat (peaks near 36°C earlier in the month), with August 31 already down to a 28.6°C high. Light winds and high humidity further moderate daytime maxima, while any breaks in cloud cover or stronger southerly advection could nudge readings slightly higher.
Market-implied odds (48.5% at 31°C, 25.5% at 30°C, 13.5% at 32°C) reflect this tight consensus around the upper 20s to low 30s, with low probabilities assigned to extremes due to the stable pattern and limited model spread. Updated JMA or numerical guidance on the morning of September 2 will be the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,256结束日期
2026-09-02市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Recent official forecasts position 31°C as the most probable peak for Tokyo on September 2, 2026.** The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a maximum of 33°C under mostly cloudy skies with only low precipitation chances early in the day, while other models and hourly guidance cluster between 30–32°C amid southerly flow and increasing cloud cover. Primary scientific drivers include the seasonal shift into early September, when climatological normals hover near 29–30°C, combined with an approaching frontal system and low-pressure influences that promote cloudiness and limit insolation. Recent late-August data showed cooling after earlier heat (peaks near 36°C earlier in the month), with August 31 already down to a 28.6°C high. Light winds and high humidity further moderate daytime maxima, while any breaks in cloud cover or stronger southerly advection could nudge readings slightly higher. Market-implied odds (48.5% at 31°C, 25.5% at 30°C, 13.5% at 32°C) reflect this tight consensus around the upper 20s to low 30s, with low probabilities assigned to extremes due to the stable pattern and limited model spread. Updated JMA or numerical guidance on the morning of September 2 will be the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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