Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS point to a daytime maximum near 24–25 °C in Wuhan on May 18, driven by a transitional subtropical ridge allowing modest solar heating amid increasing afternoon cloud cover and light northerly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing. Mid-May climatology typically supports peaks of 26–28 °C under clearer skies, yet current model consensus highlights modest cooling from elevated humidity and scattered showers, creating tight clustering around the 23–26 °C outcomes. Key variables differentiating these probabilities include exact timing of cloud build-up, local urban heat-island effects at the Tianhe Airport station, and minor shifts in wind direction that could add or subtract 1–2 °C from the peak reading.