**As of mid-June 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the leading 36–39 bin that traders favor at 65.1%.** This total reflects a record pace of departures for the party in power during a midterm cycle, driven by members pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or full retirement amid institutional frustrations, slim majorities, and the typical headwinds facing the president’s party. Multiple sources, including Ballotpedia and Wikipedia compilations updated through June 13, confirm the 36-Republican figure out of 58 total House departures. Recent announcements have been steady but not explosive in the past month, with several tied to state-level races or personal decisions rather than late surprises. Additional exits remain possible before filing deadlines and primaries conclude, which keeps the 32–35 (18.3%) and 40–43 (5.8%) ranges as secondary possibilities, while lower or much higher bins reflect limited trader expectations for major shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于36–39 70.4%
32–35 13.1%
40–43 5.1%
24–27 1.9%
$63,503 交易量
$63,503 交易量
2026-08-31
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
13%
36–39
70%
40–43
5%
44人及以上
<1%
36–39 70.4%
32–35 13.1%
40–43 5.1%
24–27 1.9%
$63,503 交易量
$63,503 交易量
2026-08-31
<24
$5,984 交易量
1%
24–27
$19,738 交易量
2%
28–31
$23,241 交易量
1%
32–35
$5,217 交易量
13%
36–39
$3,400 交易量
70%
40–43
$2,683 交易量
5%
44人及以上
$3,240 交易量
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-June 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the leading 36–39 bin that traders favor at 65.1%.** This total reflects a record pace of departures for the party in power during a midterm cycle, driven by members pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or full retirement amid institutional frustrations, slim majorities, and the typical headwinds facing the president’s party. Multiple sources, including Ballotpedia and Wikipedia compilations updated through June 13, confirm the 36-Republican figure out of 58 total House departures. Recent announcements have been steady but not explosive in the past month, with several tied to state-level races or personal decisions rather than late surprises. Additional exits remain possible before filing deadlines and primaries conclude, which keeps the 32–35 (18.3%) and 40–43 (5.8%) ranges as secondary possibilities, while lower or much higher bins reflect limited trader expectations for major shifts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$63,503结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-June 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the leading 36–39 bin that traders favor at 65.1%.** This total reflects a record pace of departures for the party in power during a midterm cycle, driven by members pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or full retirement amid institutional frustrations, slim majorities, and the typical headwinds facing the president’s party. Multiple sources, including Ballotpedia and Wikipedia compilations updated through June 13, confirm the 36-Republican figure out of 58 total House departures. Recent announcements have been steady but not explosive in the past month, with several tied to state-level races or personal decisions rather than late surprises. Additional exits remain possible before filing deadlines and primaries conclude, which keeps the 32–35 (18.3%) and 40–43 (5.8%) ranges as secondary possibilities, while lower or much higher bins reflect limited trader expectations for major shifts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$63,503结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-June 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the leading 36–39 bin that traders favor at 65.1%.** This total reflects a record pace of departures for the party in power during a midterm cycle, driven by members pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or full retirement amid institutional frustrations, slim majorities, and the typical headwinds facing the president’s party. Multiple sources, including Ballotpedia and Wikipedia compilations updated through June 13, confirm the 36-Republican figure out of 58 total House departures. Recent announcements have been steady but not explosive in the past month, with several tied to state-level races or personal decisions rather than late surprises. Additional exits remain possible before filing deadlines and primaries conclude, which keeps the 32–35 (18.3%) and 40–43 (5.8%) ranges as secondary possibilities, while lower or much higher bins reflect limited trader expectations for major shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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