Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
7月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
100–129 100.0%
250–279 4.5%
<100 <1%
130–159 <1%
$6,110 交易量
$6,110 交易量
2026-08-01
<100
No
100–129
Yes
130–159
No
160–189
No
190–219
No
220–249
No
250–279
No
280–310
No
310+
No
100–129 100.0%
250–279 4.5%
<100 <1%
130–159 <1%
$6,110 交易量
$6,110 交易量
2026-08-01
<100
$890 交易量
No
100–129
$827 交易量
Yes
130–159
$684 交易量
No
160–189
$551 交易量
No
190–219
$515 交易量
No
220–249
$546 交易量
No
250–279
$810 交易量
No
280–310
$650 交易量
No
310+
$637 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
交易量
$6,110结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$6,110结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题