The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,709 交易量
$12,709 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
88%
民主党
10%
$12,709 交易量
$12,709 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$3,841 交易量
88%
民主党
$8,868 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$12,709结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,709结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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