The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—centered on alleged misleading congressional testimony regarding roughly $2.5 billion in Federal Reserve headquarters renovation overruns—remains the dominant driver of near-zero implied probabilities on Polymarket contracts for federal charges by year-end 2026. A federal judge had already quashed related grand jury subpoenas in March, citing insufficient evidence of criminality beyond policy disputes over monetary easing, while referral of the matter to the Fed’s inspector general (who had previously identified no fraud) eliminated the primary enforcement pathway. With Powell’s chair term concluded and no fresh investigative activity or congressional referrals reported since the April shutdown, trader consensus backed by real capital prices the likelihood of indictment at approximately 2 percent, reflecting the probe’s effective collapse amid broader concerns over central bank independence. No major catalysts appear scheduled before December 31.