**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS consensus indicate a daily minimum near 16°C for Beijing on September 16, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds promoting efficient nocturnal radiative cooling.** This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date and recent stable high-pressure conditions that limit warm-air advection or cloud interference. Multiple observational sites and ensemble runs show overnight temperatures bottoming in the 15–18°C range without significant deviations expected before midnight. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this tight forecast agreement and low uncertainty. A realistic challenge would require unmodeled increases in low-level moisture or wind shear that reduce cooling rates, potentially lifting the minimum above 17°C, though current guidance shows minimal probability of such shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月16日北京最低气温？
9月16日北京最低气温？
16°C 98%
14°C 14%
13°C 12%
15°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
11°C或以下
6%
12°C
6%
13°C
12%
14°C
14%
15°C
11%
16°C
98%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C或更高
<1%
16°C 98%
14°C 14%
13°C 12%
15°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
11°C或以下
$0 交易量
6%
12°C
$20 交易量
6%
13°C
$0 交易量
12%
14°C
$0 交易量
14%
15°C
$38 交易量
11%
16°C
$38 交易量
98%
17°C
$146 交易量
<1%
18°C
$202 交易量
<1%
19°C
$16 交易量
<1%
20°C
$15 交易量
<1%
21°C或更高
$10 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS consensus indicate a daily minimum near 16°C for Beijing on September 16, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds promoting efficient nocturnal radiative cooling.** This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date and recent stable high-pressure conditions that limit warm-air advection or cloud interference. Multiple observational sites and ensemble runs show overnight temperatures bottoming in the 15–18°C range without significant deviations expected before midnight. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this tight forecast agreement and low uncertainty. A realistic challenge would require unmodeled increases in low-level moisture or wind shear that reduce cooling rates, potentially lifting the minimum above 17°C, though current guidance shows minimal probability of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$485结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS consensus indicate a daily minimum near 16°C for Beijing on September 16, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds promoting efficient nocturnal radiative cooling.** This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date and recent stable high-pressure conditions that limit warm-air advection or cloud interference. Multiple observational sites and ensemble runs show overnight temperatures bottoming in the 15–18°C range without significant deviations expected before midnight. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this tight forecast agreement and low uncertainty. A realistic challenge would require unmodeled increases in low-level moisture or wind shear that reduce cooling rates, potentially lifting the minimum above 17°C, though current guidance shows minimal probability of such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$485结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and GFS consensus indicate a daily minimum near 16°C for Beijing on September 16, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds promoting efficient nocturnal radiative cooling.** This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date and recent stable high-pressure conditions that limit warm-air advection or cloud interference. Multiple observational sites and ensemble runs show overnight temperatures bottoming in the 15–18°C range without significant deviations expected before midnight. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability reflects this tight forecast agreement and low uncertainty. A realistic challenge would require unmodeled increases in low-level moisture or wind shear that reduce cooling rates, potentially lifting the minimum above 17°C, though current guidance shows minimal probability of such shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题