Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (47.5%) to a minimum of 17°C or higher for Cape Town on September 16, reflecting model guidance from the South African Weather Service showing mild overnight conditions driven by northerly flow and reduced cold-air advection ahead of any frontal passage. Typical September minima average 10–13°C, with variability tied to the strength and timing of mid-latitude cyclones that can drop temperatures via southeasterly surges or clear-sky radiational cooling under high pressure. Ensemble forecasts currently indicate limited risk of strong cooling, keeping probabilities for 11–13°C outcomes clustered near 27% while lower thresholds remain below 15%. Fresh model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will provide the key updates that could shift these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月16日开普敦最低气温？
9月16日开普敦最低气温？
17°C或更高 92%
11°C 30%
12°C 28%
10°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
7°C或更低
15%
8°C
15%
9°C
16%
10°C
27%
11°C
30%
12°C
28%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
8%
16°C
7%
17°C或更高
92%
17°C或更高 92%
11°C 30%
12°C 28%
10°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
7°C或更低
$0 交易量
15%
8°C
$0 交易量
15%
9°C
$0 交易量
16%
10°C
$0 交易量
27%
11°C
$0 交易量
30%
12°C
$0 交易量
28%
13°C
$0 交易量
27%
14°C
$0 交易量
26%
15°C
$0 交易量
8%
16°C
$0 交易量
7%
17°C或更高
$0 交易量
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (47.5%) to a minimum of 17°C or higher for Cape Town on September 16, reflecting model guidance from the South African Weather Service showing mild overnight conditions driven by northerly flow and reduced cold-air advection ahead of any frontal passage. Typical September minima average 10–13°C, with variability tied to the strength and timing of mid-latitude cyclones that can drop temperatures via southeasterly surges or clear-sky radiational cooling under high pressure. Ensemble forecasts currently indicate limited risk of strong cooling, keeping probabilities for 11–13°C outcomes clustered near 27% while lower thresholds remain below 15%. Fresh model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will provide the key updates that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (47.5%) to a minimum of 17°C or higher for Cape Town on September 16, reflecting model guidance from the South African Weather Service showing mild overnight conditions driven by northerly flow and reduced cold-air advection ahead of any frontal passage. Typical September minima average 10–13°C, with variability tied to the strength and timing of mid-latitude cyclones that can drop temperatures via southeasterly surges or clear-sky radiational cooling under high pressure. Ensemble forecasts currently indicate limited risk of strong cooling, keeping probabilities for 11–13°C outcomes clustered near 27% while lower thresholds remain below 15%. Fresh model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will provide the key updates that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETTrader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (47.5%) to a minimum of 17°C or higher for Cape Town on September 16, reflecting model guidance from the South African Weather Service showing mild overnight conditions driven by northerly flow and reduced cold-air advection ahead of any frontal passage. Typical September minima average 10–13°C, with variability tied to the strength and timing of mid-latitude cyclones that can drop temperatures via southeasterly surges or clear-sky radiational cooling under high pressure. Ensemble forecasts currently indicate limited risk of strong cooling, keeping probabilities for 11–13°C outcomes clustered near 27% while lower thresholds remain below 15%. Fresh model runs and local observations tomorrow morning will provide the key updates that could shift these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题