Recent ensemble forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF models indicate minimum temperatures in Helsinki on August 27 centering near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those levels. Late-August climatology shows typical overnight lows declining from 13°C early in the month toward 9°C, with radiative cooling enhanced by clear intervals but moderated by residual Baltic moisture. Model spread arises mainly from uncertainty in cloud cover and any weak frontal passage, producing a 2–3°C range across members that keeps 8°C and 12–14°C outcomes competitive. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations expected within 24 hours will refine the minimum, which is measured at the official Helsinki station.