**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 25°C low (99.1% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, driven by official forecasts and real-time observations aligning closely with that threshold.** The Hong Kong Observatory forecast calls for temperatures of 26–31°C under partly cloudy skies with fresh northwest winds (4–5, occasionally stronger offshore), influenced by the nearby tropical cyclone Saudel and northeast monsoon flow. Station data through the afternoon show overnight lows already tracking 24.7–26.2°C at key sites, with the observatory headquarters recording a 24-hour minimum near 25.9°C. Model consensus and historical September baselines (typical nighttime lows ~26°C) support minimal further cooling once winds moderate slightly overnight. A realistic challenge would require sustained stronger onshore flow or heavier rain bands suppressing radiational cooling enough to hold the minimum at or above 26°C, or an unexpected clear, calm spell dropping it to 24°C or lower. Current conditions and the narrow observed range make such shifts unlikely before midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月3日香港最低气温？
9月3日香港最低气温？
25°C 99.3%
24°C 3%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$19,707 交易量
$19,707 交易量
2026-09-03
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
99%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.3%
24°C 3%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$19,707 交易量
$19,707 交易量
2026-09-03
20°C or below
$469 交易量
<1%
21°C
$463 交易量
1%
22°C
$787 交易量
<1%
23°C
$1,539 交易量
1%
24°C
$1,923 交易量
3%
25°C
$3,347 交易量
99%
26°C
$5,944 交易量
<1%
27°C
$2,322 交易量
<1%
28°C
$1,396 交易量
<1%
29°C
$1,047 交易量
<1%
30°C or higher
$470 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 25°C low (99.1% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, driven by official forecasts and real-time observations aligning closely with that threshold.**
The Hong Kong Observatory forecast calls for temperatures of 26–31°C under partly cloudy skies with fresh northwest winds (4–5, occasionally stronger offshore), influenced by the nearby tropical cyclone Saudel and northeast monsoon flow. Station data through the afternoon show overnight lows already tracking 24.7–26.2°C at key sites, with the observatory headquarters recording a 24-hour minimum near 25.9°C. Model consensus and historical September baselines (typical nighttime lows ~26°C) support minimal further cooling once winds moderate slightly overnight.
A realistic challenge would require sustained stronger onshore flow or heavier rain bands suppressing radiational cooling enough to hold the minimum at or above 26°C, or an unexpected clear, calm spell dropping it to 24°C or lower. Current conditions and the narrow observed range make such shifts unlikely before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$19,707结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 25°C low (99.1% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, driven by official forecasts and real-time observations aligning closely with that threshold.**
The Hong Kong Observatory forecast calls for temperatures of 26–31°C under partly cloudy skies with fresh northwest winds (4–5, occasionally stronger offshore), influenced by the nearby tropical cyclone Saudel and northeast monsoon flow. Station data through the afternoon show overnight lows already tracking 24.7–26.2°C at key sites, with the observatory headquarters recording a 24-hour minimum near 25.9°C. Model consensus and historical September baselines (typical nighttime lows ~26°C) support minimal further cooling once winds moderate slightly overnight.
A realistic challenge would require sustained stronger onshore flow or heavier rain bands suppressing radiational cooling enough to hold the minimum at or above 26°C, or an unexpected clear, calm spell dropping it to 24°C or lower. Current conditions and the narrow observed range make such shifts unlikely before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$19,707结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 25°C low (99.1% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, driven by official forecasts and real-time observations aligning closely with that threshold.** The Hong Kong Observatory forecast calls for temperatures of 26–31°C under partly cloudy skies with fresh northwest winds (4–5, occasionally stronger offshore), influenced by the nearby tropical cyclone Saudel and northeast monsoon flow. Station data through the afternoon show overnight lows already tracking 24.7–26.2°C at key sites, with the observatory headquarters recording a 24-hour minimum near 25.9°C. Model consensus and historical September baselines (typical nighttime lows ~26°C) support minimal further cooling once winds moderate slightly overnight. A realistic challenge would require sustained stronger onshore flow or heavier rain bands suppressing radiational cooling enough to hold the minimum at or above 26°C, or an unexpected clear, calm spell dropping it to 24°C or lower. Current conditions and the narrow observed range make such shifts unlikely before midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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