**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日香港最低气温？
9月4日香港最低气温？
25°C 51%
26°C 32%
24°C 10%
27°C 5.1%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
20°C或以下
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
10%
25°C
51%
26°C
32%
27°C
5%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C或更高
<1%
25°C 51%
26°C 32%
24°C 10%
27°C 5.1%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
20°C或以下
$1,277 交易量
1%
21°C
$84 交易量
<1%
22°C
$265 交易量
<1%
23°C
$390 交易量
4%
24°C
$822 交易量
10%
25°C
$3,869 交易量
51%
26°C
$938 交易量
32%
27°C
$353 交易量
5%
28°C
$655 交易量
1%
29°C
$566 交易量
1%
30°C或更高
$42 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$9,262结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,262结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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