**The approach of tropical cyclone Sadell and northeasterly monsoon flow is the dominant driver capping Hong Kong temperatures on September 4, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasting a 25–29°C range amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort.** These conditions limit surface heating by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting vertical mixing, keeping daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C according to recent model runs. Trader emphasis on the 28°C and 29°C outcomes reflects this narrow band, where small differences in shower timing, wind persistence, or brief clearing could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines under similar disturbed regimes rarely exceed 30°C, reinforcing the low probabilities assigned to higher thresholds. Updated HKO briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria ahead of the close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日香港气温最高？
9月4日香港气温最高？
28°C 31%
29°C 30%
30°C 16%
27°C 11%
最新
$10,928 交易量
最新
$10,928 交易量
2026-09-04
23°C或以下
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
11%
28°C
31%
29°C
30%
30°C
16%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C或以上
1%
28°C 31%
29°C 30%
30°C 16%
27°C 11%
最新
$10,928 交易量
最新
$10,928 交易量
2026-09-04
23°C或以下
$9,790 交易量
1%
24°C
$0 交易量
2%
25°C
$143 交易量
<1%
26°C
$206 交易量
5%
27°C
$86 交易量
11%
28°C
$167 交易量
31%
29°C
$188 交易量
30%
30°C
$166 交易量
16%
31°C
$30 交易量
6%
32°C
$71 交易量
2%
33°C或以上
$80 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The approach of tropical cyclone Sadell and northeasterly monsoon flow is the dominant driver capping Hong Kong temperatures on September 4, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasting a 25–29°C range amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort.** These conditions limit surface heating by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting vertical mixing, keeping daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C according to recent model runs. Trader emphasis on the 28°C and 29°C outcomes reflects this narrow band, where small differences in shower timing, wind persistence, or brief clearing could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines under similar disturbed regimes rarely exceed 30°C, reinforcing the low probabilities assigned to higher thresholds. Updated HKO briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$10,928结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The approach of tropical cyclone Sadell and northeasterly monsoon flow is the dominant driver capping Hong Kong temperatures on September 4, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasting a 25–29°C range amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort.** These conditions limit surface heating by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting vertical mixing, keeping daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C according to recent model runs. Trader emphasis on the 28°C and 29°C outcomes reflects this narrow band, where small differences in shower timing, wind persistence, or brief clearing could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines under similar disturbed regimes rarely exceed 30°C, reinforcing the low probabilities assigned to higher thresholds. Updated HKO briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$10,928结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**The approach of tropical cyclone Sadell and northeasterly monsoon flow is the dominant driver capping Hong Kong temperatures on September 4, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance forecasting a 25–29°C range amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort.** These conditions limit surface heating by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting vertical mixing, keeping daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C according to recent model runs. Trader emphasis on the 28°C and 29°C outcomes reflects this narrow band, where small differences in shower timing, wind persistence, or brief clearing could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical early-September baselines under similar disturbed regimes rarely exceed 30°C, reinforcing the low probabilities assigned to higher thresholds. Updated HKO briefings and next model cycles will refine resolution criteria ahead of the close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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