Forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services point to a minimum temperature of 16°C in Istanbul on September 15, 2026, as the primary driver of the market's 99.5% implied probability on that outcome. Northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight promote radiative cooling, aligning with typical early-September climatology where overnight lows often settle near 17–18°C but can dip lower under stable high pressure. Trader consensus reflects this consensus guidance, with minimal odds on deviations. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected warm-air advection from the south could realistically push the minimum above 16°C, though current observations and model runs show limited support for such shifts before the daily low is recorded.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月15日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
9月15日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
16°C 99.5%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$1,987 交易量
$1,987 交易量
2026-09-15
14°C或以下
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
100%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或更高
<1%
16°C 99.5%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$1,987 交易量
$1,987 交易量
2026-09-15
14°C或以下
$134 交易量
1%
15°C
$88 交易量
<1%
16°C
$234 交易量
100%
17°C
$380 交易量
<1%
18°C
$375 交易量
<1%
19°C
$476 交易量
<1%
20°C
$156 交易量
<1%
21°C
$60 交易量
<1%
22°C
$26 交易量
<1%
23°C
$32 交易量
<1%
24°C或更高
$32 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services point to a minimum temperature of 16°C in Istanbul on September 15, 2026, as the primary driver of the market's 99.5% implied probability on that outcome. Northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight promote radiative cooling, aligning with typical early-September climatology where overnight lows often settle near 17–18°C but can dip lower under stable high pressure. Trader consensus reflects this consensus guidance, with minimal odds on deviations. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected warm-air advection from the south could realistically push the minimum above 16°C, though current observations and model runs show limited support for such shifts before the daily low is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,987结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services point to a minimum temperature of 16°C in Istanbul on September 15, 2026, as the primary driver of the market's 99.5% implied probability on that outcome. Northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight promote radiative cooling, aligning with typical early-September climatology where overnight lows often settle near 17–18°C but can dip lower under stable high pressure. Trader consensus reflects this consensus guidance, with minimal odds on deviations. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected warm-air advection from the south could realistically push the minimum above 16°C, though current observations and model runs show limited support for such shifts before the daily low is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,987结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETForecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services point to a minimum temperature of 16°C in Istanbul on September 15, 2026, as the primary driver of the market's 99.5% implied probability on that outcome. Northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight promote radiative cooling, aligning with typical early-September climatology where overnight lows often settle near 17–18°C but can dip lower under stable high pressure. Trader consensus reflects this consensus guidance, with minimal odds on deviations. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected warm-air advection from the south could realistically push the minimum above 16°C, though current observations and model runs show limited support for such shifts before the daily low is recorded.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题