Traders assign near-certainty to a 14°C low in Madrid on September 12 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs show overnight temperatures stabilizing at that level under a persistent high-pressure ridge. This pattern has suppressed cooler northerly flow and kept dew points supportive of minimal radiative cooling, consistent with early-autumn climatology for the region. With the observation window now active, real-time station data align closely with model guidance, narrowing the range of possible outcomes. An unexpected shift in boundary-layer moisture or a brief clear-sky radiative spike could still produce a slightly lower reading, though current conditions make such deviations improbable before midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月12日马德里最低气温？
9月12日马德里最低气温？
14°C 100.0%
11°C或以下 <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$596 交易量
$596 交易量
2026-09-12
11°C或以下
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
是
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C或更高
否
14°C 100.0%
11°C或以下 <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$596 交易量
$596 交易量
2026-09-12
11°C或以下
$45 交易量
否
12°C
$45 交易量
否
13°C
$25 交易量
否
14°C
$64 交易量
是
15°C
$166 交易量
否
16°C
$101 交易量
否
17°C
$20 交易量
否
18°C
$0 交易量
否
19°C
$65 交易量
否
20°C
$65 交易量
否
21°C或更高
$0 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 14°C low in Madrid on September 12 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs show overnight temperatures stabilizing at that level under a persistent high-pressure ridge. This pattern has suppressed cooler northerly flow and kept dew points supportive of minimal radiative cooling, consistent with early-autumn climatology for the region. With the observation window now active, real-time station data align closely with model guidance, narrowing the range of possible outcomes. An unexpected shift in boundary-layer moisture or a brief clear-sky radiative spike could still produce a slightly lower reading, though current conditions make such deviations improbable before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$596结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-certainty to a 14°C low in Madrid on September 12 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs show overnight temperatures stabilizing at that level under a persistent high-pressure ridge. This pattern has suppressed cooler northerly flow and kept dew points supportive of minimal radiative cooling, consistent with early-autumn climatology for the region. With the observation window now active, real-time station data align closely with model guidance, narrowing the range of possible outcomes. An unexpected shift in boundary-layer moisture or a brief clear-sky radiative spike could still produce a slightly lower reading, though current conditions make such deviations improbable before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$596结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Traders assign near-certainty to a 14°C low in Madrid on September 12 because official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs show overnight temperatures stabilizing at that level under a persistent high-pressure ridge. This pattern has suppressed cooler northerly flow and kept dew points supportive of minimal radiative cooling, consistent with early-autumn climatology for the region. With the observation window now active, real-time station data align closely with model guidance, narrowing the range of possible outcomes. An unexpected shift in boundary-layer moisture or a brief clear-sky radiative spike could still produce a slightly lower reading, though current conditions make such deviations improbable before midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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