**Forecast consensus points to an overnight low near 80–82°F for Miami on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 80–81°F bin (46.5% implied probability).** Multiple official and private forecasts issued on August 28, including the National Weather Service Miami office, WeatherBug, and others, project lows in the lower 80s under partly cloudy to overcast skies with easterly winds of 5–10 mph and dew points holding near 78–80°F. These conditions limit radiative cooling typical of clearer nights. Persistent warm, humid air from the Atlantic subtropical ridge has kept recent Miami lows in the upper 70s to low 80s, well above the late-August climatological average of ~77–78°F. A recent heat wave peaked with a record 100°F high on August 18, and the ongoing pattern of high heat indices (up to 106–107°F) and scattered thunderstorms maintains elevated nighttime temperatures without significant cold-air advection. Model guidance shows limited overnight drops, with any showers or clouds further suppressing cooling. The 78–79°F and 82–83°F bins capture the main uncertainty range around forecast timing and exact cloud cover, while lower-probability outcomes below 78°F or above 83°F would require atypical model shifts or unexpected clearing/intensification. Resolution will hinge on the official minimum recorded at Miami International Airport; traders are pricing in the strong near-term consensus from NWS and ensemble guidance.