**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on August 28 show highs clustered in the low-to-mid 30s °C amid widespread rain and thunderstorms, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 32–33 °C while still assigning meaningful probability to 34 °C or higher.** Multiple Chinese meteorological sources (including ip.cn and local reports) project a daily maximum near 31 °C with periods of moderate-to-heavy rain, which limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. International models such as those reflected on WeatherBug (~30 °C / 86 °F) and The Weather Network (30 °C) align with this cooler, wetter regime, whereas a few ensemble outputs reach 33 °C under lighter precipitation assumptions. This spread in model guidance—driven by uncertainty in exact rainfall timing, intensity, and cloud persistence—underpins the near-even odds between 32 °C and 33 °C. The non-negligible 18 % chance attached to 35 °C or higher likely reflects residual upside risk if convective activity is delayed or less widespread than currently anticipated. Historical late-August climatology for the Sichuan Basin, featuring frequent monsoon-related showers, further supports the market’s emphasis on temperatures below the recent hot spell rather than a return to peak summer values. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月28日成都气温最高？
8月28日成都气温最高？
33°C 29%
32°C 21%
35°C or higher 18%
31°C 17%
最新
最新
2026-08-28
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
10%
31°C
12%
32°C
21%
33°C
24%
34°C
17%
35°C or higher
18%
33°C 29%
32°C 21%
35°C or higher 18%
31°C 17%
最新
最新
2026-08-28
25°C or below
$273 交易量
<1%
26°C
$5 交易量
2%
27°C
$36 交易量
2%
28°C
$32 交易量
2%
29°C
$0 交易量
5%
30°C
$0 交易量
10%
31°C
$28 交易量
12%
32°C
$5 交易量
21%
33°C
$17 交易量
24%
34°C
$15 交易量
17%
35°C or higher
$0 交易量
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on August 28 show highs clustered in the low-to-mid 30s °C amid widespread rain and thunderstorms, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 32–33 °C while still assigning meaningful probability to 34 °C or higher.**
Multiple Chinese meteorological sources (including ip.cn and local reports) project a daily maximum near 31 °C with periods of moderate-to-heavy rain, which limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. International models such as those reflected on WeatherBug (~30 °C / 86 °F) and The Weather Network (30 °C) align with this cooler, wetter regime, whereas a few ensemble outputs reach 33 °C under lighter precipitation assumptions.
This spread in model guidance—driven by uncertainty in exact rainfall timing, intensity, and cloud persistence—underpins the near-even odds between 32 °C and 33 °C. The non-negligible 18 % chance attached to 35 °C or higher likely reflects residual upside risk if convective activity is delayed or less widespread than currently anticipated. Historical late-August climatology for the Sichuan Basin, featuring frequent monsoon-related showers, further supports the market’s emphasis on temperatures below the recent hot spell rather than a return to peak summer values. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$410结束日期
2026-08-28市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on August 28 show highs clustered in the low-to-mid 30s °C amid widespread rain and thunderstorms, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 32–33 °C while still assigning meaningful probability to 34 °C or higher.**
Multiple Chinese meteorological sources (including ip.cn and local reports) project a daily maximum near 31 °C with periods of moderate-to-heavy rain, which limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. International models such as those reflected on WeatherBug (~30 °C / 86 °F) and The Weather Network (30 °C) align with this cooler, wetter regime, whereas a few ensemble outputs reach 33 °C under lighter precipitation assumptions.
This spread in model guidance—driven by uncertainty in exact rainfall timing, intensity, and cloud persistence—underpins the near-even odds between 32 °C and 33 °C. The non-negligible 18 % chance attached to 35 °C or higher likely reflects residual upside risk if convective activity is delayed or less widespread than currently anticipated. Historical late-August climatology for the Sichuan Basin, featuring frequent monsoon-related showers, further supports the market’s emphasis on temperatures below the recent hot spell rather than a return to peak summer values. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$410结束日期
2026-08-28市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on August 28 show highs clustered in the low-to-mid 30s °C amid widespread rain and thunderstorms, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 32–33 °C while still assigning meaningful probability to 34 °C or higher.** Multiple Chinese meteorological sources (including ip.cn and local reports) project a daily maximum near 31 °C with periods of moderate-to-heavy rain, which limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. International models such as those reflected on WeatherBug (~30 °C / 86 °F) and The Weather Network (30 °C) align with this cooler, wetter regime, whereas a few ensemble outputs reach 33 °C under lighter precipitation assumptions. This spread in model guidance—driven by uncertainty in exact rainfall timing, intensity, and cloud persistence—underpins the near-even odds between 32 °C and 33 °C. The non-negligible 18 % chance attached to 35 °C or higher likely reflects residual upside risk if convective activity is delayed or less widespread than currently anticipated. Historical late-August climatology for the Sichuan Basin, featuring frequent monsoon-related showers, further supports the market’s emphasis on temperatures below the recent hot spell rather than a return to peak summer values. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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