**Persistent unsettled weather from nearby tropical systems and a broad monsoon trough is keeping daytime heating in check for Shenzhen on August 26.** Multiple official and model forecasts show highs clustered around 30–33°C (roughly 86–91°F) amid mostly cloudy skies, frequent showers or thunderstorms, and southwesterly flow. This setup favors the market’s leading 30°C (28.5%) and 31°C (27.5%) outcomes by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling. Heavy rainfall totals expected from lingering effects of systems such as Tropical Storm Narra (紫檀) and nearby depressions suppress maximum temperatures relative to clearer August climatology. Historical analogs for similar late-August patterns in the Pearl River Delta show peak readings rarely exceeding 33°C under comparable moisture and cloud regimes. Traders appear to be weighting near-term model consensus and the high likelihood of convective activity over any potential brief clearing that could push readings to 34°C or higher (currently only 3.3% combined). Lower outcomes below 29°C remain discounted given the region’s subtropical baseline and limited northerly influence. Updated CMA or NMC guidance ahead of the date will be the next key input for refining these narrow probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月26日深圳气温最高？
8月26日深圳气温最高？
30°C 29%
31°C 28%
32°C 19%
33°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
11%
30°C
29%
31°C
28%
32°C
19%
33°C
13%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 29%
31°C 28%
32°C 19%
33°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
25°C or below
$0 交易量
2%
26°C
$0 交易量
4%
27°C
$402 交易量
1%
28°C
$159 交易量
7%
29°C
$7 交易量
11%
30°C
$34 交易量
29%
31°C
$5 交易量
28%
32°C
$15 交易量
19%
33°C
$30 交易量
13%
34°C
$5 交易量
6%
35°C or higher
$5 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent unsettled weather from nearby tropical systems and a broad monsoon trough is keeping daytime heating in check for Shenzhen on August 26.** Multiple official and model forecasts show highs clustered around 30–33°C (roughly 86–91°F) amid mostly cloudy skies, frequent showers or thunderstorms, and southwesterly flow. This setup favors the market’s leading 30°C (28.5%) and 31°C (27.5%) outcomes by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling.
Heavy rainfall totals expected from lingering effects of systems such as Tropical Storm Narra (紫檀) and nearby depressions suppress maximum temperatures relative to clearer August climatology. Historical analogs for similar late-August patterns in the Pearl River Delta show peak readings rarely exceeding 33°C under comparable moisture and cloud regimes. Traders appear to be weighting near-term model consensus and the high likelihood of convective activity over any potential brief clearing that could push readings to 34°C or higher (currently only 3.3% combined). Lower outcomes below 29°C remain discounted given the region’s subtropical baseline and limited northerly influence. Updated CMA or NMC guidance ahead of the date will be the next key input for refining these narrow probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$661结束日期
2026-08-26市场开放时间
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent unsettled weather from nearby tropical systems and a broad monsoon trough is keeping daytime heating in check for Shenzhen on August 26.** Multiple official and model forecasts show highs clustered around 30–33°C (roughly 86–91°F) amid mostly cloudy skies, frequent showers or thunderstorms, and southwesterly flow. This setup favors the market’s leading 30°C (28.5%) and 31°C (27.5%) outcomes by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling.
Heavy rainfall totals expected from lingering effects of systems such as Tropical Storm Narra (紫檀) and nearby depressions suppress maximum temperatures relative to clearer August climatology. Historical analogs for similar late-August patterns in the Pearl River Delta show peak readings rarely exceeding 33°C under comparable moisture and cloud regimes. Traders appear to be weighting near-term model consensus and the high likelihood of convective activity over any potential brief clearing that could push readings to 34°C or higher (currently only 3.3% combined). Lower outcomes below 29°C remain discounted given the region’s subtropical baseline and limited northerly influence. Updated CMA or NMC guidance ahead of the date will be the next key input for refining these narrow probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$661结束日期
2026-08-26市场开放时间
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Persistent unsettled weather from nearby tropical systems and a broad monsoon trough is keeping daytime heating in check for Shenzhen on August 26.** Multiple official and model forecasts show highs clustered around 30–33°C (roughly 86–91°F) amid mostly cloudy skies, frequent showers or thunderstorms, and southwesterly flow. This setup favors the market’s leading 30°C (28.5%) and 31°C (27.5%) outcomes by limiting solar insolation and promoting evaporative cooling. Heavy rainfall totals expected from lingering effects of systems such as Tropical Storm Narra (紫檀) and nearby depressions suppress maximum temperatures relative to clearer August climatology. Historical analogs for similar late-August patterns in the Pearl River Delta show peak readings rarely exceeding 33°C under comparable moisture and cloud regimes. Traders appear to be weighting near-term model consensus and the high likelihood of convective activity over any potential brief clearing that could push readings to 34°C or higher (currently only 3.3% combined). Lower outcomes below 29°C remain discounted given the region’s subtropical baseline and limited northerly influence. Updated CMA or NMC guidance ahead of the date will be the next key input for refining these narrow probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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