Current short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear skies and light northerly flow supporting radiative cooling but limiting overnight drops, keeping Milan’s minimum temperature on September 3 most likely near 21–23 °C. This underpins the market’s leading 34.5 % implied probability on 23 °C or higher, while the 29.5 % on 13 °C or below reflects residual tail risk from any unforecasted frontal passage or greater boundary-layer mixing. Mid-range bins clustered around 17–21 °C capture typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in dew-point depression, cloud-cover timing, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the nocturnal minimum by 1–3 °C. Updated model runs and official Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow these ranges ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月3日米兰最低气温？
9月3日米兰最低气温？
23°C or higher 69%
13°C or below 59%
17°C 29%
18°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
13°C or below
59%
14°C
3%
15°C
12%
16°C
24%
17°C
29%
18°C
27%
19°C
26%
20°C
24%
21°C
24%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
69%
23°C or higher 69%
13°C or below 59%
17°C 29%
18°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
13°C or below
$5 交易量
59%
14°C
$5 交易量
3%
15°C
$0 交易量
12%
16°C
$0 交易量
24%
17°C
$0 交易量
29%
18°C
$0 交易量
27%
19°C
$0 交易量
26%
20°C
$0 交易量
24%
21°C
$0 交易量
24%
22°C
$5 交易量
2%
23°C or higher
$5 交易量
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear skies and light northerly flow supporting radiative cooling but limiting overnight drops, keeping Milan’s minimum temperature on September 3 most likely near 21–23 °C. This underpins the market’s leading 34.5 % implied probability on 23 °C or higher, while the 29.5 % on 13 °C or below reflects residual tail risk from any unforecasted frontal passage or greater boundary-layer mixing. Mid-range bins clustered around 17–21 °C capture typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in dew-point depression, cloud-cover timing, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the nocturnal minimum by 1–3 °C. Updated model runs and official Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear skies and light northerly flow supporting radiative cooling but limiting overnight drops, keeping Milan’s minimum temperature on September 3 most likely near 21–23 °C. This underpins the market’s leading 34.5 % implied probability on 23 °C or higher, while the 29.5 % on 13 °C or below reflects residual tail risk from any unforecasted frontal passage or greater boundary-layer mixing. Mid-range bins clustered around 17–21 °C capture typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in dew-point depression, cloud-cover timing, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the nocturnal minimum by 1–3 °C. Updated model runs and official Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a stable high-pressure regime over northern Italy, with clear skies and light northerly flow supporting radiative cooling but limiting overnight drops, keeping Milan’s minimum temperature on September 3 most likely near 21–23 °C. This underpins the market’s leading 34.5 % implied probability on 23 °C or higher, while the 29.5 % on 13 °C or below reflects residual tail risk from any unforecasted frontal passage or greater boundary-layer mixing. Mid-range bins clustered around 17–21 °C capture typical ensemble spread arising from small differences in dew-point depression, cloud-cover timing, and urban heat-island effects that modulate the nocturnal minimum by 1–3 °C. Updated model runs and official Italian Meteorological Service guidance expected within the next 24 hours will narrow these ranges ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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