Recent forecast guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service points to overnight cooling in Munich amid a post-heatwave pattern, with model consensus favoring a minimum of 11–14 °C under variable cloud cover and possible thundery showers. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows near 12 °C and diurnal ranges of 9–11 °C are typical. Trader positioning on the 9 °C-or-below outcome at 44.5 % implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in the precise timing of any late-night clearing or localized radiational cooling at official stations, while the cluster of probabilities near 33–34 % for 12–15 °C outcomes reflects ongoing model spread and the market’s aggregation of skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of final observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月21日慕尼黑最低气温？
8月21日慕尼黑最低气温？
9°C or below 85%
12°C 35%
13°C 35%
15°C 34%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
9°C or below
85%
10°C
14%
11°C
14%
12°C
35%
13°C
35%
14°C
34%
15°C
34%
16°C
26%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C或更高
<1%
9°C or below 85%
12°C 35%
13°C 35%
15°C 34%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
9°C or below
$92 交易量
85%
10°C
$98 交易量
14%
11°C
$92 交易量
14%
12°C
$0 交易量
35%
13°C
$0 交易量
35%
14°C
$16 交易量
34%
15°C
$0 交易量
34%
16°C
$0 交易量
26%
17°C
$134 交易量
<1%
18°C
$115 交易量
<1%
19°C或更高
$169 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service points to overnight cooling in Munich amid a post-heatwave pattern, with model consensus favoring a minimum of 11–14 °C under variable cloud cover and possible thundery showers. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows near 12 °C and diurnal ranges of 9–11 °C are typical. Trader positioning on the 9 °C-or-below outcome at 44.5 % implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in the precise timing of any late-night clearing or localized radiational cooling at official stations, while the cluster of probabilities near 33–34 % for 12–15 °C outcomes reflects ongoing model spread and the market’s aggregation of skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
交易量
$717结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service points to overnight cooling in Munich amid a post-heatwave pattern, with model consensus favoring a minimum of 11–14 °C under variable cloud cover and possible thundery showers. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows near 12 °C and diurnal ranges of 9–11 °C are typical. Trader positioning on the 9 °C-or-below outcome at 44.5 % implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in the precise timing of any late-night clearing or localized radiational cooling at official stations, while the cluster of probabilities near 33–34 % for 12–15 °C outcomes reflects ongoing model spread and the market’s aggregation of skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$717结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETRecent forecast guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service points to overnight cooling in Munich amid a post-heatwave pattern, with model consensus favoring a minimum of 11–14 °C under variable cloud cover and possible thundery showers. This aligns with August climatology, where average lows near 12 °C and diurnal ranges of 9–11 °C are typical. Trader positioning on the 9 °C-or-below outcome at 44.5 % implied probability appears driven by uncertainty in the precise timing of any late-night clearing or localized radiational cooling at official stations, while the cluster of probabilities near 33–34 % for 12–15 °C outcomes reflects ongoing model spread and the market’s aggregation of skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of final observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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